The Ukraine War Derail Iran’s Nuclear Deal

The scramble to clinch the Iran nuclear deal in Vienna is like walking the bride up the alter and saying ‘sorry no can do, the groom has run away.’

And so this was the case between Tehran and Washington. The so-called nuclear delegates in Vienna wrapped up their 11-month negotiations foray and said they are ready for a deal that would allow the USA to re-enter the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) it broke away in 2018.

It was going to be all set and match with everyone looking forward to sign what amounted to a brand new deal to restrict and monitor Iran’s nuclear activity. Russia had played a pivotal role in getting Iran to accept the deal. China was in on it as well. There was an celebratory atmosphere around it. The USA, Britain, France and Germany were happy to let Moscow lead. A restrained Iran would be in everyone’s interest and her nuclear ambitions would be thwarted. 

But it wasn’t to be, at least not for now. The present Ukraine bloody war somehow got in the way, especially as Washington and NATO stated they would enforce international sanctions on Russia for invading Ukraine and starting a conflict of death, destruction and mayhem. That was the catch!

Ukraine complicated the issues and become political capital became the gemstones for different parties. Now, when all things are finalized - at the dismay of many like Israel which no doubt feels happy now - Moscow is dragging its feet and making sure Washington won’t sign until a couple of things, to put it mildly, are sorted out.

It’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov wants to make sure the international sanctions imposed on them won’t effect the current trade relations and deals between Russia and Iran. Until that is fixed, the signing on the deal will continue to be stalled and as the Ukraine conflict becomes more complex and the war gains intensity, the pressure on the deal increases, taking a back seat and may indeed, never be signed.

The more days pass the more frustration sets not just from the Iranians and all parties, including the Americans and Russians. But this is politics and international relations being played at the highest stakes. The frustration here also is likely to lead to great disappointment and dismay for the different parties and negotiators have put a lot of time and effort into the talks to suddenly come back to square one, an unbearable showdown with the Iranians clearly irritated.

But there is more. It is not just putting the negotiations in stalemate and on hold but there is now the issue of backtracking and reassessment by the Americans, Europeans, Russians and Iranians positions who now enter a ‘phase-down’ mode. They have reached such an advanced stage of ‘pushing’ and ‘shoving’ on the domestic levels especially for Iran that any delays is likely to lead to further problems and complications and intransigence.

There are conservative elements in Tehran who don’t want the deal. Any further delays in their eyes would mean western states are not taking the deal seriously and widen opposition especially from those who say they want further guarantees from Washington that US administration after President Joe Biden won’t renegade on JCOPA just as Donald Trump did in 2018 when he flagged down the international accord signed by world powers under UN auspices.

In turn, and this could mainly come from the Europeans, is the fact that the more delay allowed, the greater the chance Iran is given for uranium enrichment and get nearer to making the nuclear bomb. The 2015 JCPOA accord limited enrichment to under four percent and introduced a strict monitoring regime supervised by IAEA inspectors to make sure there is not violations. This will likely take a backseat now until a new agreement is reached and now with the  chaos of the international system caused by the Ukraine invasion, nobody knows when discord will end.

So this is the stage the world community is at now. The war on the Ukraine is likely to last for a while. Some claim it would continue at least till June or longer. The fact that Russia is now under the most stringent of global sanctions is likely to increase international tensions and hence remove the Iran nuclear file furthest from the minds of the Americans and the global powers.

This the waiting games continues.