ALBAWABA - According to a report in Yedioth Ahronoth on Saturday, two senior researchers at Israel's Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) have warned that Turkey's growing role in Gaza's postwar arrangements could turn into a strategic nightmare for Israel.
The report says that Israel has firmly turned down any Turkish involvement in talks about Gaza since the war began. This is mostly because President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has harshly criticized Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, calling him "the Hitler of our time" and accusing him of genocide over and over.
But things have changed a lot since then. In the last few weeks, Turkey has become a key player in talks to end the fighting. This is a big change in the balance of diplomatic power.
Return to Ankara with U.S. Support
Researchers Galia Lindenstrauss and Rami Daniel say that Ankara's involvement is happening with the help of the U.S., but Erdoğan's words against Israel have only gotten stronger.
Lindenstrauss said that U.S. President Donald Trump thinks Erdoğan is a leader who can bring order back to the Middle East. This has led Washington to back Turkey's role in the "day-after" plan for Gaza.
"This news is very bad for Israel," she said, calling Turkey "an openly hostile actor whose presence in Gaza goes against Israel's core interests."
She also said that Turkey's strong military and good organizational skills could make it a useful member of any peacekeeping force, but its closeness to Israeli troops could cause problems or even violence.
"Historic Opportunity" for Erdoğan
Lindenstrauss said that the way the U.S. is handling things gives Erdoğan the legitimacy he has been looking for for years: a chance to return to politics in Gaza after being out of the picture since the 2010 Mavi Marmara incident. She said that for Ankara, this is a once-in-a-lifetime chance to regain power in the region and take charge of Arab affairs again, especially the Palestinian cause.
Rami Daniel, a researcher, called Turkey's return a "turning point" and said that Ankara had always worked to become a key player in mediation efforts. He said that Turkey has given a lot of humanitarian aid to Gaza over the years and used pro-Palestinian language to make itself look like a champion of Muslim unity. But it has only now been able to turn that into political power.
Daniel said, "Erdoğan saw Trump's plan as the perfect chance to show how important he is in the region." "But for Israel, that same chance could quickly turn into a nightmare."
Risks to strategy and politics
Daniel said that Israel's defense establishment is worried that Turkey's involvement in any monitoring or enforcement role could limit the Israeli army's freedom of action or even lead to direct clashes if tensions rise.
He went on to say that Ankara's support for Hamas is another political problem. He said, "Turkey wants Hamas to stay politically legitimate and is against its complete disarmament. This is the opposite of what Israel, Egypt, and the UAE want."
Daniel said that most regional powers now support Israel's position over Turkey's, but Turkey's growing power could temporarily change the balance.
Increasing Power Outside of Gaza
Lindenstrauss said that Israel's worries go beyond Gaza. Turkey's growing power in Syria, along with Iran's declining power, has made Ankara a regional competitor with bigger goals.
She said that Turkey and Israel have even set up a direct military hotline to avoid accidental conflicts in Syrian airspace. This shows how fragile their coexistence is.
