According to the latest economic brief published by National Bank of Kuwait, the surplus posted by the Kuwaiti budget in the first six-month period of the fiscal year 2001/2002 will turn into a small deficit if Kuwait crude remains between $15 - $17 in the next three months.
According to the NBK report, by the close of FY01/02 the surplus indicated in the interim figures is likely to vanish. Weaker oil prices and reduced crude oil output have already negatively impacted revenues during the first half of FY01/02.
Sharper declines since October are expected to cause the variance from last year’s revenues for the year as a whole to be even greater. Revenues are expected to stand at KD 4.65 – 4.71 billion, down by 29–30 percent from FY00/01 on an annualized basis.
Still, NBK expects actual revenues to exceed budget estimates that were based on a hypothetical price of $15 a barrel. In contrast, NBK estimates the average price of Kuwait crude to range between $19.5 and $20 for the full fiscal year even with the average for the first quarter of 2002 remaining in the range of $15 - $17. — (menareport.com)
© 2002 Mena Report (www.menareport.com)
