After Bashagha's Inroad! Can Libya Get Its Act Together?

The attempted forced entry of Fathi Bashagha into Tripoli and install his self-appointed government there, is pointing to a dark road ahead for Libya, a country which is trying to move ahead from civil war to an established state under UN auspices. 

Bashagha is a man from the east. He had been appointed as Prime Minister by the Tobruk-based House of Representatives last February to take over the Libyan government. But this is clearly not working as point by recent events that could have been worse, if you want to put a lighter side on things. 

Bashagha is facing a rival administration led by Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh who has been appointed by the United Nations struck in a deal at the end of 2020. He was to hold his post till the elections. These were supposed to take place on 24 December, 2021 but many hiccups and worries dominated the seen especially as the holding of the polls got nearer.

Sadly though and with much jitters, the polls, the start of a process to unite Libya split down-the-middle since 2014, were never held as officials said more time was needed for electoral procedure to be put in place. Here was a country that was supposed to be introduced to democratic rule overnight.

However, the delay clearly upset the administration in the east who wanted things to move on, or so it has been claimed. As well, their lawmakers believed that the poll postponement was their chance to form a government led by Bashagha for the whole of Libya. However, there was no suggestion, at least outwardly, that they want to renegade on the dialogue agreement reach with the Libyan parties.

But  Dbeibeh was most certainly not of the same opinion, arguing as a UN-recognized premier, he would continue till elections can be held, regardless of the timetable because this was the future of Libya.

And as a result, he, at the behest of the different militias have not allowed Bashagha, a former Interior Minister, to take up his post in Tripoli nor to install his government there. Bashagha tried three times to enter the city, with the help of an armed militia of his own but he failed on all occasions, being stopped by Dbeibeh's men.

The last attempt, which lasted for only a few hours, led to skirmishes and mass resistance in the middle of the capital, harking back to the old days of many battles, however, Bashagha and his ministers, swiftly withdrew. Unlike former times, Bashagha said he wanted to avoid further bloodshed and said would take his government to Sirte and establish his new administration from there. 

Its early days for that however. While its easy to say he would establish his government there, the point is will it be recognized as such by the people of Libya and the international community. Despite of what he says, many analysts say Bashagha is not liked in Tripoli mainly because he supports Khalifa Haftar, the strong military man of the east. Not only he is regarded as man behind the Tobruk administration, but he aimed his guns at Tripoli in 2019 and attempted to take the city by force then with much blood being spilled then by the people and their families there. 

Its a volatile situation. Hardened men are still prepared to take the extra mile of battle. This is not to forget Libya has effectively been ruled by militiamen and armed faction in 2011 when long-time leader Moammer Gaddafi was removed from power in 2011 after the Arab Spring protest that rocked the country and the Middle East for years to come.

What's interesting is while strain and stress is going on in Libya, and it looks touch and go between the factions, militias and politicians for the moment, delegates from both sides continue to meet. Presently, they are assembling in Cairo under the UN direction to help plot out the next way forward for Libya. The UN wants them to continue talking in a constructive dialogue with the hope that an understanding will be reached and a constitutional process can take hold in the country. 

But that will take time.