Will The UK Prime Minister Survive Confidence Vote?

 Boris Johnson is imminent today as another MP went public.

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Graham Brady confirmed the threshold of 54 MPs asking for a full confidence vote has been reached, and one will be held tonight. 

Former minister Jesse Norman - a long-term supporter of the PM - accused him of 'grotesque' behaviour over Partygate in an excoriating letter.

They have been circulating a dossier branding Mr Johnson the 'Conservative Corbyn' and raising alarm about a hammering from.

However, the premier is preparing to 'stand and fight his corner' if there is a challenge, with warnings of a damaging civil war and even an early election. 

In a round of interviews this morning, Health Secretary Sajid Javid said there 'may well' be a vote but urged restive Tories to hold back.

'This country doesn't need a vote of confidence in the Prime Minister. What we need to be doing as a country is looking ahead to the challenges that exist,' Mr Javid told Sky News.

'If this threshold of 54 letters is reached there will be a confidence vote and in that case there should be. There may well be one.

'If there is, the Prime Minister will stand and fight his corner with a very, very strong case. So let's just wait and see what happens.'

In a letter to the Prime Minister posted on social media, Mr Norman, the MP for Hereford and South Herefordshire, said Mr Johnson had presided over 'a culture of casual law-breaking' in No 10 and that his claim to be vindicated by the Sue Gray report was 'grotesque'. 

One critic claimed over the weekend that 67 letters have been submitted - although it is impossible to be sure as Sir Graham never reveals the number until the threshold is breached.

He was expected to hold off on making any announcement over the four-day Platinum Jubilee celebrations for the Queen, but could give an update with the Commons returning today.

A vote might happen as early as this evening, with Downing Street seeming increasingly resigned to having to fight. However, there have been suggestions that the showdown could be Wednesday.

Some rebels are anxious that the timing could backfire as Mr Johnson is likely to win 50 per cent of the vote and survive. He would theoretically be immune from another challenge for a year, even though the party looks set for more punishment in two crucial by-elections later this month.

A poll over the weekend found the Tories were trailing by 20 points in the Red Wall seat of Wakefield, which they seized as part of Mr Johnson's landslide in 2019.   

Nadhim Zahawi warned Tory MPs last night they were plotting a course for disaster by seeking to remove Mr Johnson.

The Education Secretary said the public 'do not vote for divided teams' – and unless the party unites it could go down to a defeat as catastrophic as Tony Blair's Labour landslide of 1997.

Last night Mr Zahawi insisted the PM had got the 'big calls right' – and urged MPs to 'get behind him' to ensure the Conservatives win the next general election.

And Transport Secretary Grant Shapps said that, although he did not think the threshold of 54 letters would be reached, he was confident that the PM would win any subsequent vote.

As MPs prepare to return to Westminster today after a week away:

• It emerged that Tory rebels spent the Jubilee weekend circulating a dossier arguing that the only way to win the next election is to 'remove Boris Johnson';
• Mr Johnson prepared to launch a fightback this week, unveiling plans to tackle NHS inefficiency and expand the right to buy;
• A poll suggested that the Conservatives are on course to lose the by-election in Wakefield, West Yorkshire, later this month;
• Splits emerged among Tory rebels about who should take over with a Remainer saying a new leader could rejoin the single market and a Eurosceptic demanded the successor be an 'ardent Brexiteer'.

Last night Mr Zahawi told the Daily Mail: 'People do not vote for divided teams. We are strongest when we are united and focused on delivery for the British people. The PM has got the big calls right: be it on Brexit, vaccines or leading us out of the pandemic. We need to get behind him.'

Meanwhile, Mr Shapps told the BBC's Sunday Morning yesterday that Mr Johnson would lead the Conservatives into a general election victory because the issues that 'matter to people' are Brexit and economic growth.

He dismissed the mixed reception received by the PM as he attended a service for the Queen at St Paul's Cathedral on Friday, where boos could be heard from the crowd. Mr Shapps noted that there were also cheers and said 'politicians don't expect to be popular all the time'.

Asked if he believes there is going to be a vote of no-confidence in Mr Johnson this week, Mr Shapps said: 'No, I don't... I'm absolutely certain, with some of these huge decisions, like sorting out Brexit, getting through coronavirus, seeing the largest growing economy last year, these are decisions and actions which will matter to people.'

Asked if Mr Johnson would win a vote of confidence, the Transport Secretary said: 'Yes, he will.'

Business minister Paul Scully last night said Mr Johnson could face a vote of no-confidence but backed him to 'face it down'.

Speaking to Channel 4's The Andrew Neil Show, Mr Scully said: 'We may well have a vote of confidence. I think he will win that.'

Government sources said it was impossible to predict whether the threshold of 54 letters would be reached – and how any subsequent vote would go.

The rebels would need 180 votes to remove the Prime Minister – and he has an in-built advantage as around 170 Tory MPs are on the so-called 'payroll vote' because they have jobs as ministers, trade envoys, ministerial 'bag carriers' or party vice-chairmen.

One source said: 'Any confidence vote would be a secret ballot so it's going to be very uncertain. And if a payroll MP votes against they are expected to resign.' The source added: 'The problem for the rebels is that there is no alternative candidate.'

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Last week, divisions among the rebels emerged when Tobias Ellwood, an opponent of the PM, suggested the UK could rejoin the single market if Mr Johnson is replaced.

This prompted the Eurosceptic rebel Andrew Bridgen to say: 'Let me be clear. If we get the opportunity to move on from the leadership of Boris Johnson, the next Prime Minister will have to be an active Brexiteer.'

This article has been adapted from its original source.