'We Should be Concerned, But We Shouldn’t Panic': Analysts on the Lebanese Situation

• Political analyst Mouafac Harb said there is no imminent threat to Lebanon's security situation and a sectarian conflict seems unlikely
• Harb also dismissed the possibility of many people's second worst-case scenario, a war with Israel
• It is speculated that Saad Hariri might return from Saudi Arabia to Lebanon on Thursday
• Harb believes the last thing the international community wants is unrest in Lebanon in addition to the turmoil in Iraq, Syria, Yemen and elsewhere

The resignation of Prime Minister Saad Hariri ushers in a new political era in Lebanon that could prove turbulent and rocky, but the security situation in the country is unlikely to be threatened anytime soon, analysts said Sunday.

“I don’t think there is any going back to the political settlement. It ended yesterday,” political analyst Mouafac Harb said.

The consensus that saw Hariri take office one year ago disappeared in a matter of hours after he announced his resignation Saturday.

While many remain dumbfounded as to what led to the resignation, few can argue that just as many are worried about the future of the country.

With concerns of renewed sectarian conflict that could devastate the country which is still recovering from the Civil War (1975-90), attention turned to Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah, who spoke Sunday night.

However, alleviating fears, the secretary-general refused to be drawn into a new Sunni-Shiite conflict and called for calm on Lebanon’s streets.

Many people’s second worst-case scenario – an immediate war with Israel – also seems distant. “No one is expecting a military campaign against Lebanon and although we cannot rule out any confrontation between Hezbollah and Israel, I do not see any interest from either side to engage in a war at this juncture,” Harb said. “It’s unlikely, destructive to Lebanon and costly to Israel, so both sides are not willing,” he added.

A potential Saudi military campaign against Hezbollah on Lebanese soil was also ruled out.

“I don’t think anyone would venture into a [politically motivated] conflict in Lebanon. Saudi Arabia can achieve its policy objectives by not resorting to military means, but through soft power and political clout in the region and the internal arena,” Harb said.

As the new week begins, people are looking to next Thursday – the day Hariri is tipped to return – and what happens next.

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“Nasrallah said something important in his speech: ‘Thursday.’ This could signal that Hariri told President [Michel] Aoun he might return,” Harb said.

But the analyst said he believed Hariri’s resignation was the start of an open-ended conflict. “I do not see a solution in the near future,” he said.

So far, Aoun has deferred any public response until Hariri’s return.

“Today we are in a political crisis. Can the local Lebanese political leaders contain it or will it escalate and disrupt relative political stability enjoyed for the last 12 months? Can they contain this without foreign intervention?” Harb asked.

Echoing Harb’s view on the threat of war in Lebanon, political analyst and communications director at the Carnegie Middle East Center, Mohanad Hage Ali, said “everything at this point is pure speculation.”

Ali said he suspected the resignation and formation of a new Cabinet will take some time, given the current level of polarization “but there are no signs of a security situation against Lebanon.”

He added: “What I suspect are more economic sanctions on the way and that is worrying given the importance of remittances from the Gulf.”

Ali said that Lebanon receives around $7 billion from the Gulf annually and $1.4 billion from Saudi Arabia alone – 2 percent of Lebanon’s GDP.

“Things are very muddy at the moment, but there is no clear strategy over what the end game is in this situation,” he said.

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Harb also questioned what the reaction of the international community would be given the “1 to 1.5 million refugees in Lebanon.”

As for next year’s parliamentary elections, Ali was skeptical and Harb said it was too early to discuss.

“Let’s all calm down and wait until Hariri comes back because his [resignation] statement was quite different from the ones he was making here,” Ali suggested.

Meanwhile, Sami Nader, director of The Levant Institute for Strategic Affairs, said he believes that the recent events put Lebanon in the heart of regional confrontation.

He said the collapse of a “safety net” that Hariri’s government provided as well as the legal cover it gave to Hezbollah is no longer available.

Asked how the country gets out of the latest crisis, Nader said: “We need to reach a real consensus, not a formal one found in textbooks.”

He described two incidents as indicative of a false consensus: Hezbollah’s negotiation with Daesh (ISIS) to end a 10-day Lebanese Army offensive against the militants on the border without government permission, and the move to send ministers to Syria to force a de-facto normalization of ties.

“Today the president has to call for a sort of dialogue to build bridges and talk about divided issues,” he said.

Even after hearing Nasrallah’s de-escalating tone Sunday, Nader said the opposing parties want real dialogue, starting with the touchy topic of Hezbollah’s arms.

Looking beyond Lebanon, Harb believes the last thing the international community wants is unrest here in addition to the turmoil in Iraq, Syria, Yemen and elsewhere. “They want Lebanon to remain stable, to keep the Lebanese headache away. We should be concerned, but we shouldn’t panic,” Harb said.

This article has been adapted from its original source.