Experts warn of Libya scenario in Sudan

Published November 20th, 2023 - 07:19 GMT
Sudan
Children transport harvested onions in the village of al-Jaberab west of Shendi in Sudan on August 30, 2023. (Photo by AFP)

ALBAWABA - More than seven months into the Sudan war, millions of people have been displaced and thousands have been killed as the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and Sudanese Army continue their power struggle over the war-torn country. 

Experts now warn the country could face a "Libya scenario". Khaled Omar Youssef, spokesman for the Forces of Freedom and Change, told AFP: "Continued fighting could lead to a few terrifying scenarios, including division. The rising tide of militarisation along ethnic and regional lines deepens social fissures in Sudan,".

Since April 15, the battle between army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and his former deputy, RSF commander Mohamed Hamdan Daglo, has caused around six million people to flee both within Sudan and across borders.

According to a conservative estimate by the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project, by the end of October, over 10,000 people had been killed. Since the beginning of November, reports of brutal massacres being committed have emerged, mostly across the Darfur region. 

UNHCR warned that escalating violence across the Darfur region in Sudan has sparked fears that atrocities committed two decades ago in Darfur could be repeated, voicing grave concern over the development. 

The horrific events in Ardamata, an area on the northeast outskirts of West Darfur's state capital el-Geneina took place from 2 to 6 November between RSF fighters and Sudanese Army soldiers near a military base, claiming the lives of more than 1,300 people from the Massalit tribe, in the Western Darfur town of el-Geneina allegedly by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF).

The report mentioned that two decades ago, thousands were killed across Darfur and millions displaced in fighting between Sudanese Government forces backed by allied militia known as the Janjaweed on one side, and rebel groups resisting the autocratic rule of President Omar al-Bashir, who was ousted in 2019.

Since the conflict between the army and a paramilitary group known as the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) began in mid-April, more than 4.8 million people in Sudan have been forced to flee their homes. An additional 1.2 million people have sought safety in nearby nations.

Over 8,000 individuals are said to have fled to Chad in the last week alone, according to UNHCR reports, however, this number is probably underestimated because of difficulties in registering new arrivals.  

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