US-based Global Insight has raised the probability rate for a short war scenario with Iraq from 60 percent to 70 percent. The increase partly reflects the already-reduced uncertainties following the decision by the United States and certain of its allies to give Saddam Hussein the 48-hour ultimatum.
This reduced uncertainty has been most noticeable in the world's surging stock markets, the jump in the US dollar, and the plunge in oil prices.
Global Insight had expected these developments to occur in the early stages of a war, but relief over the end of diplomatic wrangling alone seems to have created a positive dynamic in world markets sooner than anticipated. But this euphoria will only be sustained if any war is short and successful, and the postwar situation does not become chaotic.
The second scenario of US victory over Iraq without war or with a very short war has been reduced from 20 to 10 percent, given the defiance by Saddam Hussein and his sons in response to President Bush's ultimatum. While a coup by the Iraqi military cannot be ruled out, the Iraqi president is unlikely to leave without a fight.
The long war scenario has been raised from eight percent to 18 percent. Recent evidence suggests that Iraq has actually deployed chemical weapons along its front lines. This raises the risk that the conflict could be messy and possibly long. — (menareport.com)
© 2003 Mena Report (www.menareport.com)
