Amid all the news of political rows and financial crisis in Turkey, the good news is that the country's tourism industry is set to cash in on the resulting devaluation of the national currency.
Industry analysts are convinced that tourism, long a major money-spinner for Turkey's treasury, could benefit from the influx of foreign visitors attracted by the collapse of the Turkish lira. The bad news however, is that any Turks traveling abroad will find the cost of living correspondingly higher.
"The crisis is certainly going to increase demand from foreign tourists for Turkey," said one official at the Turkish Association of Tour Operators (TURSAB), who wished to remain anonymous. The Turkish lira has fallen 25 to 30 percent against the US dollar since the government last week abandoned the currency peg and let it find its own level.
"People will be attracted to a country where their currency is strong relative to the Turkish lira, which should prompt people to change destinations in favor of Turkey," said the official.
But Turkey's accommodation and transport facilities are limited she warned. The country might struggle to cope with a boom season and so the tourism ministry needed to step up moves to cope with any rush.
Huseyin Baraner, of Oger Tours, took a more positive line. "There is room for everyone," he said, and Turkey was already a more accessible country than either Spain or Italy, he added. "I have never seen such a boom, and in only one year," he added. "The facilities are adequate. For the moment, the country is capable of welcoming 14 million people," he said.
"The devaluation represents at least 30 percent lower prices for tourists in Turkey. The price for the voyage is the same, because it is a fixed currency — but it's when you get there that it's a lot cheaper. And European tourists are very aware when it comes to the question of price — on that score, they are very well informed, very quickly."
According to official figures, Turkey finished 2000 with a record of more than 10 million foreigners, who spent about $8.5 billion. That was a welcome fillip after the deadly earthquakes of 1999 ruined the tourist season — quite apart from all the human misery it caused.
Even before the currency crash, Turkey was reckoning on 12 million tourists this year, spending $10 billion, with a projected 17 million tourists spending $12.5 billion by 2010.
Tourism is one of Turkey's most dynamic sectors and a major currency earner. More and more money is invested in the sector every year. In 2001, Turkey is aiming to add another million beds to the country's tourist accommodation.
More Germans than any other nationality have come to Turkey for the last three years and they are expected to lead the charge to the beaches in the coming months too, said the TURSAB official.
Selcuk Olcayto, operations director for Air Tours, said: "We are already taking 30 percent more reservations compared to 2000." The company is one of the five giants in the sector.
In the short term however, the currency crisis spells disaster for Turkish tourists seeking to travel abroad, said Enzo Keller, the owner of Ankara-based Yanki Turizm.
He reported a 60-percent cancellation rate for trips abroad to observe bayram, the Muslim festival of sacrifice, due at the beginning of March. "Nobody wants to spend their money abroad in a time of economic uncertainty," he lamented.
The Turkish government meanwhile has declared nine days of holidays — which some commentators say is to take the public's mind off the dwindling value of their savings. — (AFP, Ankara)
© Agence France Presse 2001
© 2001 Mena Report (www.menareport.com)