| Currency <?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /> | Daily Percentage Change (%) | Intraday High | Intraday Low | Day's Range (pips) |
| AUDCAD | +0.9% | 0.8542 | 0.8434 | 108 |
| EURAUD | -0.9% | 1.6893 | 1.6679 | 214 |
AUDNZD | +1.0% | 1.1407 | 1.1241 | 166 |
AUDCAD<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />
Spurring the Aussie dollar leg higher against the Canadian dollar was the months employment report. According to the Bureau of Statistics in <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" />Sydney, employers added six times as many employees compared to consensus estimates in the month of September. Rising by 31,400, the report continues to add optimism to an economy that has sported positive consumer spending and will likely reach the upper end of estimates of year end growth. As a result, the case becomes easier for another rate hike increase by the Reserve Bank of Australia as it is evident that inflationary pressures are likely to increase further on in an economy that has created 258,000 jobs this year. Subsequently, due to the additions, wages have increased supporting the case for consumer price increases.
Comparatively, it seems that interest rates overall won as Canadian dollar prospects were additionally higher than expected. Rising in the month of August, the Canadian surplus improved to a widened surplus of $4.2 billion compared to lower expectations as exports increased for the fourth month while imports into the worlds ninth largest economy fell. Import volumes dropped to C$34.80 billion as exports increased to almost C$39 billion. Although unlikely to sway the Bank of Canada in further lifting the benchmark interest rate, the report is positive for the economy as some grew concerned over the recent slowdown in the economy.
EURAUD
Carry traders were back, taking the EURAUD higher as Aussie prospects were heightened during the session. Compared to an improved employment picture, the Euro lost ground as the necessity for interest rate hikes remain unclear in the 12-nation Euro. As a result, traders sided with a more preferrable Australian dollar, shorting the Euro in tandem. Bolstering the Aussie was the October consumer inflation expectations report. Releasing nothing new the survey simply confirmed the higher rate of inflation as expectations are for further price increases heading into year end. With European data next to nil on the session tomorrow, it seems that momentum may be the price actions only friend heading into the weekend.
Already ticking higher in the North American close, the EURAUD seems ripe for some support at the 1.6675 figure. Bolstering the confirmation seems to be a golden cross in the Stochastic as plenty of bids are visual emerging in the 60-minute time frame. As a result, bulls are eyeing the significant 1.6800 handle (confluence of both the 61.8 percent 9/5-10/3 bull wave and the 23.6 percent fib from the 10/3-10/11 bear wave). The level is likely to act as a formidable barrier where plenty of offers reside in the near term. Conversely, however, should the level fail to hold, bull would likely stampede to September 5th spike low of 1.6600
Excluding already established bullishness for the Aussie dollar, traders are anticipating positive retail sales figures from the Kiwi economy. Already indicative of further growth, positive retail sales is likely to boost further speculation of rate increases in light of further downplaying by Finance Minister Cullen. Recently, Cullen has reiterated the overvaluation of the Kiwi, alerting traders to a possible pullback in the domestic currency. However, strength continues to remain with the high yielding currency as foreign interests continue to seek higher rates of return. Expectations are for a 0.1 percent increase in Kiwi retail sales for the month of August.
Forming a textbook triple bottom, the cross pair has bounced off of support just below the 1.1250 figure as bulls made easy work of the 1.1350 level on the advance. Currently, the price action is hovering in consolidation just below 1.1497 (23.6 percent fib from the 9/4-9/26 bear wave). Still being contained in a seeming range bound environment, the price action is biased for another leg higher to hit resistance at the 1.1450 ceiling before any considerations to the downside can be made. However, pullbacks at this point cannot be precluded as they coincide with a potential overextension in both MACD and Stochastic. The directional upward bias is in line with the overall daily time frame, which is suggestive a move higher in the longer term.