Consumers May See Cheaper Ramadan as Commodity Prices Ease with Stronger Global Supply

Ramadan marks one of the busiest periods of the year for retailers across the UAE and the wider GCC. However, there is good news for consumers: several staple ingredients for the holy month, such as wheat, sugar, coffee, and cocoa, are entering the season at relatively soft prices as global supply conditions improve.  

While consumer demand typically strengthens ahead of Ramadan, global markets are currently responding more to supply developments than seasonal buying patterns. What that means is that this Ramadan has potential to be cheaper than last year.

The price of wheat, a core staple in Arab households, used in dishes such as harees and khubz, has come under mild downward pressure in recent sessions. Wheat prices are down 5% YoY; a modest dip. Futures are trading near $5.6 per bushel, easing from a three-month high earlier in February when a cold wave raised concerns about crop damage in parts of the U.S. Plains. As weather conditions improved, supply expectations stabilised. Russian production forecasts have been revised higher, with SovEcon estimating 85.9 million tons and IKAR projecting close to 91 million tons for 2026. India has also approved 2.5 million tons of wheat exports following strong harvests, while Argentina is reporting a near-record crop of around 28 million tons. Together, these developments are supporting global supply.

Sugar prices are down more than 10% over the past month and nearly 35% YoY, trading at around 13.46 U.S. cents per pound. Brazil continues to play a key role in global pricing, with strong export flows keeping markets well supplied. Improved weather conditions have further reduced production risks. In India, the world’s second-largest exporter, authorities recently increased the export quota by 500,000 tons to support market stability.

Arabica coffee, or gahwa, a central part of Ramadan gatherings, has eased to around $2.80 per pound, its lowest level since July 2025, and prices are now 27% lower YoY. Prices are under pressure as Brazil, the world’s largest producer, anticipates a strong 2026/27 harvest following improved rainfall. Brazil’s Conab forecasts output at 66.2 million bags, with some private estimates even higher. However, supplies from the current 2025/26 season remain relatively tight, which may limit the discount that consumers will ultimately see in shops.

The staple that has seen the greatest price fall is cocoa. Cocoa is now around $3,200 per tonne, its lowest level since June 2023. Prices are down a whopping 69% YoY, representing a significant correction from 2025’s supply-driven spike. As the weather improves in West Africa and yields rise in South America, global supply is increasing. Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) inventories have climbed to multi-month highs, signalling ample availability. For UAE consumers, cocoa’s stability is particularly relevant given the popularity of chocolate-based desserts during Ramadan and the continued buzz around the now-viral “Dubai Chocolate”. The market has shifted from last year’s supply shortages to expectations of more balanced conditions, reducing price pressure for now.

Commenting on the broader trend, Sam North, Market Analyst at eToro, said: global markets are entering 2026 with improving production outlooks and stronger supply visibility. While short-term volatility cannot be ruled out, current fundamentals suggest that markets are well positioned to absorb seasonal Ramadan demand. It is worth noting that food producers typically secure raw materials in advance, meaning current futures prices are not immediately reflected in retail costs. Nevertheless, easing input prices support the prospect of a comparatively less expensive Ramadan this year, should softer trends persist.