1. CADJPY
2. CHFJPY
3. NZDJPY
CADJPY The CADJPY has traded sideways for the last week between 103.67 and 101.95. The a-b-c 3 wave correction that we focused on last week remains intact. The a and c legs of the correction are very close to equal (335 and 345 pips). This is a property commonly found in a flat correction. This next leg down would be the third leg in a bearish sequence and third legs are often powerful. If 103.67 holds as resistance, then the first measured objective is at 97.25. This is where the decline from 103.67 would equal the 106.36-99.96 decline. 97.25 is also near the 1/9/2006 low of 97.10. This is a critical level for the CADJPY as the pair is near the 200 day SMA, which is currently flat. If 103.67 gives way, then the bearish structure is no longer intact.
Key Levels & Technical Indicators
CHFJPY It looks like a large wave 3 or C that began in March 2006 remains in progress. A break above 98.04 exposes a measured objective for the end of wave 3 at the 1.618 extension of 84.74-93.11 / 87.63 at 101.06. This is just above the 1998 high of 100.85. Near term support is at the 1/25 low at 96.33. The 1/08 low at 95.56 needs to hold in order to keep the medium term bullish bias. Price above the 20 day SMA also favors the upside.
Key Levels & Technical Indicators
NZDJPY We mentioned last week that A cautious bullish bias is warranted above the breakout point of 84.65 with focus on 87.05. We were cautious due to bearish divergence with oscillators at the recent high. Initial support is at the measured objective of 83.37, which is where the decline from 85.17 would equal the 85.48 to 83.69 decline. This would complete an a-b-c correction and give way to another rally. A decline much below 83.37 gives scope to more bearish potential. In this case, focus would shift to the 161.8% extension of 85.48-83.69/85.17 at 82.27.
Key Levels & Technical Indicators
Table
CCI(20) 21 day Commodity Channel Index
> 0 bullish
0 > bearish
> 100 extremely bullish
-100 > - extremely bearish
RSI(14) 14 day Relative Strength Index
> 50 bullish
50 > bearish
> 70 overbought
30 > - oversold
MACD ? - MACD slope (MACD MACD[1])
> 0 bullish
0 > - bearish
Mom(21) 21 day Momentum
> 0 bullish
0 > - bearish
ATR(14) 14 day Average True Range (volatility)
Medium 75th percentile* > ATR(14) > 25th percentile*
High - > 75th percentile*
Low 25th percentile* >
*measured against past 3 months
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