• Euro gains stall out just shy of 200-Day SMA
• Dollar/Yen price action very choppy; stay sidelined
• Cable looking to put in bearish reversal day; below 1.4990
• Dollar/Swiss well propped ahead of 1.1245
EUR/USD
| EUR/USD – Gains have stalled out just shy of the 200-Day SMA on Thursday with the market reaching 1.3470 ahead of the latest minor pullback. The last time the pair close above the 200-Day SMA was back on August 7, 2008, so a close above would be viewed as a significant development. Above the 200-Day at 1.3475 opens an acceleration towards 1.3585 which ultimately guards against the key trend highs at 1.3740. A break back below 1.3245 will now be required to take the pressure off of the topside. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL. | | Level | Resistance | Details | | 1.3585 | R3 | 4/6 high | | 1.3500 | R2 | Psychological | | 1.3475 | R1 | 200-Day SMA | | Level | Support | Details | | 1.3245 | S1 | 5/6 low | | 1.3190 | S2 | 4/30 low | | 1.3120 | S3 | 4/29 low |
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USD/JPY
| USD/JPY – Daily studies are mixed and the market continues to chop around with no clear directional bias. Key levels to watch above and below now come in by 99.75 and 97.95 respectively but we do not recommend taking any positions at until a clearer opportunity presents. Our strategy will be to wait for studies to either show overbought or oversold before looking to enter the market. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL. | | Level | Resistance | Details | | 101.45 | R3 | 4/6 2009 High | | 100.00 | R2 | Psychological | | 99.75 | R1 | 5/7 high | | Level | Support | Details | | 98.25 | S1 | 5/7 low | | 97.95 | S2 | 5/6 low | | 97.15 | S3 | 4/30 low |
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GBP/USD
| GBP/USD – Gains have stalled out on Thursday with the market posting a fresh higher high by 1.5200 before reversing quite sharply back below 1.5000. At this time 1.4980 is still supporting, but a break below this level would set up a very bearish reversal day and likely open the door for a major corrective pullback and potential resumption of the broader downtrend. Inability to break below 1.4980 would however keep the focus on a retest of the 2009 highs by 1.5375. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL. | | Level | Resistance | Details | | 1.5375 | R3 | 1/8 2009 High | | 1.5300 | R2 | Figure | | 1.5200 | R1 | 5/7 high | | Level | Support | Details | | 1.4980 | S1 | 5/5 low | | 1.4755 | S2 | 5/1 low | | 1.4705 | S3 | 4/30 low |
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USD/CHF
| USD/CHF – Despite the latest break below the much talked about 200-Day SMA, we are still reluctant to adopt a bearish view, with the market very much locked in a choppy multi-day range trade. Setbacks should be well supported ahead of 1.1165 with only a sustained break below the latter to ultimately shift our bias. A break back above 1.1450 is required to take pressure off of the downside while below 1.1245 opens fresh drop. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL. | | Level | Resistance | Details | | 1.1500 | R3 | Psychological | | 1.1450 | R2 | 4/29 high | | 1.1425 | R1 | 5/7 high | | Level | Support | |
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