1. EURJPY
2. EURCHF
3. EURGBP
EURJPY EURJPY continues to ride along the upper Bollinger band (daily) following Fridays rally to 149.80. The supporting trendlines are nearly vertical now and there is still bearish divergence with daily oscillators. In this instance, it helps to look at the COT data to see where we are. We are waiting for commercials to be extremely long of JPY before considering a turn to JPY strength. That report is here - http://www.dailyfx.com/story/charting_center/futures_positioning_cot_report/Positioning_Indicates_That_AUD_USD_May_1156749929640.html . With Fibonacci resistance behind the pair, well look towards weekly pivot points for resistance (see table below). A break below the trendlines on the chart would begin to make a case for bears.
EURCHF EURCHF has traded in a choppy range since 8/11 between 1.5827 and 1.5757. The pair most recently traded off of resistance at 1.5825 today (8/28). Only a break below the 8/17 low at 1.5757 would instill confidence in the downside. Until then, the choppy range may continue. However, the double top with the 4/27 high at 1.5821 and negative MACD slope both favor bears. Bearish divergence on the daily with momentum also suggests that the path is down. Immediate resistance is at the 8/16 high at 1.5827.
EURGBP EURGBP trades just below the confluence of its 10 and 20 day SMA at .6767/74. Last Thursdays and Fridays lows at .6746 are immediate support but weakness through there could see a test of the 8/8 and 8/9 lows at .6718. The pair remains within a large symmetrical triangle (since May 2003) with the supporting line from the triangle just below the .6700 figure. As such, downside potential is likely limited. It takes a push above the 8/25 high at .6781 to establish confidence in the upside.
