-EURGBP triangle
-EURCHF turning higher from secondary low?
-EURCAD, EURAUD, and EURNZD may have found bottoms
Euro / British Pound
Previously bearish, I am taking a more neutral stance now. Since the beginning of the year, the EURGBP pattern may be unfolding as a triangle. The down, up, down sequence would be waves a through c (triangles unfold in 5 waves labeled a-b-c-d-e). Each leg of a triangle consists of 3 waves, which is the case in this pair since early January. Dropping below .8763 would favor bears and trigger an alternate bearish count which I’ll show if required.
Euro / Swiss Franc
The EURCHF remains bullish. A small 2nd or b wave may be complete at 1.5014. The next expected move is higher through 1.5450 (and possibly 1.5886).
Euro / Canadian Dollar
Last week, I wrote that “the EURCAD is expected to drop below 1.5633 in order to complete an A-B-C decline from 1.7522. Potential support in weeks ahead is 1.5260, which is the 100% extension of the decline from 1.6983. I’ll be looking for a bottom near there.” The EURCAD dropped to 1.5462 and reversed. Many times, a series of first and second waves will unfold near the beginning of a move. That may be occurring here. There is short term Fibonacci support from 1.5775 to 1.5677.
Euro / Australian Dollar
The structure of the decline from 2.1174 and RSI divergence on the daily suggests that an important low could be in place for the EURAUD at 1.7500. The decline from 2.1174 can be counted as a flat (subdivisions are 3-3-5) with wave B as a triangle.
Euro / New Zealand Dollar
Remember, the long term objective is above 2.6171 (all-time high). The reason for this target is that a triangle unfolded from that point. Near term, the EURNZD has declined from the top of a bullish channel. I wrote last week that “while a rally is what I am looking for, a drop below 2.2413 may be required prior to resumption of the long term uptrend.” Price did drop below 2.2413 and price is now testing Elliott channel support. If the larger trend is up (as I think it is), then the EURNZD should rally now.
Jamie Saettele publishes Daily Technicals every weekday morning (930 am EST), COT analysis (published Monday mornings), technical analysis of currency crosses throughout the week (EUR on Tuesday, JPY on Wednesday, GBP on Thursday, AUD on Friday), and the DFX Trend Index every day after the NY close. He is also the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.
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