It is true that the choice of mayors and city councils in nearly 1,000 municipalities has been overloaded with political symbolism. However, it is safe to presume that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will remain in control over the management of Turkey, regardless of how many municipalities of greater significance -- such as Ankara and Istanbul -- his party alliance may lose.
The reason is simple: Turkey's administrative regime has changed radically since the referendum of April 16, 2017. The 51% “yes” vote handed Erdogan extensive executive powers -- to rule at will by decree.
Consequently, the legislature's powers were crippled to a minimum and the separation of powers devolved to near non-existence. Rule of law, as the cynical joke goes in Turkey, has turned into a “Law of Rule.”
It is important to stress that the regime has boosted Turkey's notoriously centralised administrative system into a “hyper-centralised” one. Roughly speaking, the new order makes it nearly impossible for municipalities to have “free turf” and develop their own local finances without the consent of the central government, which, in Turkey's case, means Erdogan's palace.
With power accumulated in his person to the maximum, Erdogan can not only block financial flows to needy municipalities -- most of them are bankrupt -- as he pleases, he can remove mayors at will, replacing them with trustees.
Erdogan exercised this authority when he dismissed approximately 100 mayors of the Peoples’ Democratic Party in mainly Kurdish provinces of south-eastern Turkey. He is not hiding his intention to do it again, if the voters insist on choosing the same party's candidates.
If it happens, that will maintain the massive tension in the country.
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While Kurdish politicians and voters seem defiant before the oppressive measures, the mayoral candidates of the mainstream opposition secular-nationalist National Alliance, which includes the Republican People’s Party and the Iyi Party, tread cautiously.
Aware of the dependence on Erdogan for financial resources if they win key cities -- such as Istanbul, Ankara or Bursa -- opposition leaders have already declared that “they will get along well with Ankara,” meaning they will treat the president with high respect and possibly abide by conditions he sets for their political survival.
This is because Erdogan not only threatened the Kurds but also the mainstream opposition bloc, with “bankruptcy” in clear terms.
One may argue that given the hyper-centralisation of executive powers, the election result may end up as a blip. It is realistic to say that the more greater municipalities the opposition alliance wins, the more it will regain the self-respect it lost during the past decade or more.
This is an election that will not change Turkey; it will only keep the door slightly open for a return to parliamentary democracy, from which the country has deviated so far.
Then, there is another issue that will remain unchanged. For nearly three years, the Turkish economy has become the true opposition figure to Erdogan and his team. The unstoppable decline that is now geometric in the finances, hitting with high unemployment and a deep recession, will be the real adversary for Turkey's weakened but still hard-to-beat president to tackle.
Erdogan probably knows that the deep wound is a product of his hyper-centralised style of rule, which decides on about everything in the country. By the latest, extremely controversial measures to take hostage the foreign investors' assets by locking them in Turkey, Erdogan shows no remorse in challenging the globalised system while wrecking the domestic economy.
This is only a stronger sign of how tightly Erdogan and his team are glued to power; how unwilling to leave it no matter what.
In this sense, local elections are yet another exercise for Erdogan to cement the new system, on top of which he hopes to remain the decisive figure. Political opposition may stay weak but it will be the economy that will make Erdogan fight for survival and define Turkey's future.
By Yavuz Baydar
The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views and opinions of Al Bawaba Business or its affiliates.
