Euro Gaps Higher
Japanese Yen Little Changed
British Pound Break From Triangle
Swiss Franc at Start of Larger Downtrend?
Canadian Dollar Cant Find Buyers
Australian Dollar 5 Waves Up?
New Zealand Dollar Approaching Major Resistance
EURUSD The EURUSD has started the year on a bid tone as the pair gapped up from 1.3200 last night. The next level of resistance is not until 1.3367. Still, and as we have concentrated on here in the last few weeks, 5 waves up can be counted from the November 2005 low at 1.1640. A break above 1.3367 means that the 5th wave is still unfolding. Focus would then shift to the 2004 high at 1.3666. Daily studies are bullish with RSI and CCI above midpoints, positive MACD slope, and price above the 20 day SMA. Initial support is former resistance at 1.3244. A break below 1.3244 would cloud the immediate bullish structure.
Key Levels & Technical Indicators
USDJPY The year long inverse head and shoulders pattern remains intact and a break above the neckline, a resistance line drawn off of 121.38 and 119.87, would warrant a longer term bullish bias. That neckline is at 119.48 today and decreases about 2 pips per day. From February to April, the 119.00 figure was solid resistance. There appears to be a decent amount of selling interest around 119.00 again as price reversed last week just above 119.00. With 5 waves up from 114.42, a retracement could challenge the 38.2% of 114.42-119.21 at 117.38. An initial bearish target is the 23.6% fibo at 118 at 118.07. 119.21 must hold as resistance. If 119.21 trades, then the aforementioned resistance line (neckline) at 119.48 is in play.
Key Levels & Technical Indicators
GBPUSD We mentioned last week that a triangle appears to be playing out in the 4th wave position (since the 3rd wave high at 1.9846). Keep in mind that this triangle is the 4th wave of the larger 5th wave so a 5th of the 5th thrust higher could exceed 1.9846 but the upside would then be limited when compared to longer term downside risk. The strength to start the new year appears to be the beginning of the break from the triangle. Again, the next target is then the high at 1.9846. Initial support is former resistance from the 12/28 high at 1.9677.
Key Levels & Technical Indicators
USDCHF The USDCHF has declined to support from the 12/20 low at 1.2110 to start the New Year. However, the 5 wave advance from 1.1878 to 1.2271 suggests that the larger trend may have turned up and that an important low is in place at 1.1878. Weakness below 1.2110 exposes Fibonacci support at the 50% of 1.1878-1.2271 at 1.2075 and then the 61.8% at 1.2029. If the initial rally from 1.1878 was wave 1 in the beginning of a 5 wave bullish sequence, then it is reasonable to expect a sharp correction lower in wave 2. Former support at 1.2160 is now resistance.
Key Levels & Technical Indicators
USDCAD The break above 1.1636 negates the immediately bearish scenario that we proposed last week and instead shifts focus to the 4/3 high at 1.1771. A short term trendline drawn off of the 11/28 and 12/20 lows keep the short term bias a bullish one. That line is at about 1.1494 today and increases roughly 10 pips per day.
Key Levels & Technical Indicators
AUDUSD The AUDUSD appears to be making a run at .8000 as bulls have bid the pair through .7950 this morning. 5 waves up from .7413 along with bearish divergence with daily oscillators at this high suggest that the Aussie may be near a top. .7778 needs to be taken out before one is confident in a bearish scenario. Interim support is .7929 and .7878 (both former resistance levels).
Key Levels & Technical Indicators
NZDUSD The Kiwi made a run at .7100 today stalling at .7096. If a long term head and shoulders top is forming, then the left shoulder at .7098 may very well be resistance. Chart congestion places resistance up until the 12/5 /2005 high at .7198. Trendline resistance is just above at .7162 today (and increases about 5 pips per day). Daily RSI remains above 70 a drop below could trigger a deeper decline.
Key Levels & Technical Indicators
Intra-Day Pivot Points
Glossary of Terms
CCI(20) 20 day Commodity Channel Index
> 0 bullish
0 > bearish
> 100 extremely bullish
-100 > - extremely bearish
RSI(14) 14 day Relative Strength Index
> 50 bullish
50 > bearish
> 70 overbought
30 > - oversold
MACD ? - MACD slope (MACD MACD[1])
> 0 bullish
0 > - bearish
Mom(21) 21 day Momentum
> 0 bullish
0 > - bearish
ATR(14) 14 day Average True Range (volatility)
Medium 75th percentile* > ATR(14) > 25th percentile*
High - > 75th percentile*
Low 25th percentile* >
*measured against past 3 months
