Euro Breaks Below Lower Bollinger Band
Japanese Yen Breaks Above 8 Year Trendline
British Pound at Supporting Trendline
Swiss Franc Continues Above 200 day SMA
Canadian Dollar Pierces 200 day SMA
Australian Dollar At Resisting Trendline
New Zealand Dollar Bounces Off Support
EURUSD As we said yesterday, The EURUSD has broken out of a 5 month triangle pattern? Fridays close below the lower Bollinger band (daily) following the historically tight bands favor a breakout to the downside. It appears that EURUSD has broken out and with daily oscillators signaling a bearish bias, price looks to target the confluence of the 200 day SMA and the 38.2% fibo of 1.1640-1.2977 at 1.2466.
USDJPY USDJPY has broken through resistance at a long-term trendline draw from the 8/11/1998 high of 147.63. Daily CCI is in extreme territory and other oscillators indicate a bullish bias, and as price often extends to a Fibonacci multiple of the widest point of the diagonal triangle, in this case, the 138.2% and 161.8% Fibonacci levels are potential ending points for this rally. The 138.2% level has already been broken so the pair could target the 161.8% is at 120.30.
GBPUSD As we noted yesterday, a head and shoulders continuation pattern formed from the 9/11 low at 1.8602 with the neckline near 1.8640. GBPUSD has broken below the neckline and currently holds at a supporting trendline drawn from the 6/29 low of 1.8090 at 1.8570. A close below the line could target the 61.8% fibo of 1.8090-1.9144 at 1.8494.
USDCHF The USDCHF broke above not only the 200 day SMA, but also the resistance line of the 5 month ascending triangle. The pair did exceed the previous high (1.2622) but did not close above it, and a close above Fridays high (1.2633) would bolster bullish prospects. 240 minute RSI is still overbought so a corrective move lower is possible. Support comes in at the 38.2% fibo of 1.2288-1.2633 at 1.2502.
USDCAD USD/CAD has continued its impulsive rally to the 1.1300 figure. The rally has pierced the 200 day SMA, which now sits at 1.1317, but a close below that price and declining intraday oscillators leave open the possibility of a retracement towards the 61.8% of 1.1085-1.1305 at 1.1169. A daily close above the 200 day SMA, however, would reinforce the bullish bias against 1.1085. As we mentioned yesterday, a possible 5 month head and shoulders continuation pattern still clouds the picture. The neckline is at 1.1063. It takes a decline below there to in order to complete the pattern and suggest that prices are headed lower.
AUDUSD We still maintain a longer term bearish bias amidst the break of the .7481 range low and the move below the 200 day SMA. Oscillators on the 240 minute charts are coming off of bullish signals, suggesting the recent bounce off of the 10/9 low of .7414 may be losing momentum. .7491 remains initial resistance but the former range high at .7573 must hold in order to keep the bearish bias intact.
NZDUSD Yesterday, Kiwi bounced off of a supporting trendline drawn from the 6/28 low of .5927 at .6539 and subsequently closed just above the 50.0% fibo of .7198-.5927 at .6567. Price continues to hold above the line and remain in the upward trend, but daily oscillators are losing their bullish edge and could test the trendline again. A subsequent move higher would target the 10/5 high of .6657. A short term head and shoulders pattern is visible on the 240 minute chart, and price must remain below the confluence of the 9/26 high and the 61.8% at .6712/21 to keep the bearish structure intact.
