In a hard-hitting opening address at the Gulf Marketing Forum in Doha yesterday, international broadcaster Tim Sebastian urged the governments of the Middle East to “let us all know where we stand.”
Sebastian’s over-riding message was that political developments are needed to keep pace with commercial interests to prevent “paralysis” of the region, and he said: “Are the gates to democracy and reform open or shut?”
These statements come after 12 months of focused research in the region, and Sebastian shared his first-hand observations with leading politicians, public figures and businessmen with 250 regional marketeers at the conference.
Sebastian said: “Despite leaders in the Middle East insisting that they are driving reform, we would all like to hear a timetable for reform, as well as some concrete proof that reform is on its way. We don’t want words and slogans – we want action.”
He stated that the changing political landscape of the region meant that domestic reform may have slipped down the agenda – if it was on the agenda at all - due to a necessity for an increasingly active foreign policy. “After all, some countries have more to worry about than membership of the WTO – they are concerned with the fate of their state on the world stage.”
The broadcaster, steadfast in his opinion that the region remains a risky environment for business, predicted that risk management teams in the region would be very busy over the next 12 months, as those with commercial interests seek to balance them with political uncertainty. He warned: “Bureaucracy should not be allowed to put the brakes on runaway economic growth.”
Sebastian concluded: “Long-term, the Arab world has potential, but it we need to see evidence of political freedoms in place, as well as transparency, accountability and increased commitment to education.”
Meanwhile, economist Henry Azzam gave bullish predictions for the economic future of the region, particularly in the coming year. However, he warned: “Under the threat of force or punitive action from the US, one or more countries in the region could witness a change in leadership, state ideologies and alliances.”
Azzam showed a more positive outlook that Sebastian, predicting strong economic growth for the region for 2004. He said: “We have a more settled regional environment, and are now seeing the “wealth effect” associated with higher share prices and a solid upturn in real estate prices.
“However, rising instability in key Arab countries will add uncertainty to the oil market and push oil prices towards $40 a barrel in the second half of 2004.”
Critical to the economic success of the region were firm oil prices, he said, before pointing out that average oil prices rose 14 percent last year to their highest level in two decades.
The conference continues today with the focus moving to customer care and branding. Keynote speeches will be from Professor Colin Gilligan, professor of marketing, Sheffield Business School in UK, and John Deykin, managing director of tmh. — (menareport.com)
© 2004 Mena Report (www.menareport.com)
