We maintain our stance that a multi-year top is in place at 1.0823 but the rally through the trendline has us worried that 1.0131 is in jeopardy. 1.0131 is the ‘line in the sand’ and must remain intact if the larger AUDCHF bearish bias is correct. There is potential resistance at .9868 (78.6% of 1.0135-.8879).
We have been bullish on the AUDCAD for months and we still are longer term bullish but expect a sizeable countertrend decline to play out over the next few weeks / month. The choppiness of the advance from the 8/17 low at .8271 may be a leading diagonal as wave 1 of larger 3. .9086 may act as a strong support level. Short term traders can look to short against .9695 for a run at .9086.
The bigger AUDNZD remains bullish but a setback over the next week or two looks likely. Look for support just below 1.1800 (specifically 1.1771). This will present an opportunity to join the uptrend or add to existing longs for the run through 1.2448.
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TREND ANALYSIS is based on a rolling pivot model. LONG TERM TREND is determined by the last 3 months of price data (high, low, close). SHORT TERM TREND is determined by the last 4 weeks of price data (high, low, close). R3, R2, R1, PL, PH, S1, S2, and S3 are provided to aid in identifying entries and exits. These are objective measures and our subjective analysis (STRATEGY) may differ.
SCHEDULE
Monday: EURGBP, EURCHF, EURCAD, EURAUD, EURNZD
Tuesday: EURJPY, GBPJPY, CHFJPY, CADJPY, AUDJPY, NZDJPY
Wednesday: GBPCHF, GBPCAD, GBPAUD, GBPNZD
Thursday: AUDCHF, AUDCAD, AUDNZD
