Ukraine War: Looking For a Way Out!

There is much conflicting news surrounding the Ukraine war both from the warring sides. Putting the bloody fighting aside, the politics of the Russian intervention has now entered a complex process of thinking and meandering. Military destruction is made with political negotiations.

The Moscow leadership no longer wants to get rid of Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky and replace him with a man to their liking as they say. What they now want is a ‘neutral’ Ukraine along the lines of Sweden and/or Austria, countries that wouldn’t express its preference to either the West or the East if that is the right term to use.

This is indeed the prevailing idea current in Moscow circles and between the Russian-Ukraine delegates who are frequently meeting on the Belarus border. No doubt, Sergei Lavrov and who has met the Ukraine Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba in Antalya, maybe behind the idea, as a way to put an end to the war but at the maximum of gains for Russia and with the least political cost.

The issue of neutrality which is still to be mulled over by the Kiev leadership leads to fulfilling the second Russian demand which is to keep NATO at bay and out of its geopolitical environment; and as a clear and transparent promise on the part of Kiev that it wouldn’t apply to join the Atlantic military organization.

And by implication, NATO members wouldn’t allow Ukraine to join. Russian President Vladimir Putin made that clear on numerous occasions but he now needs guarantees before he would be willing to stop the war despite the claimed problems he is having in logistics and supplies.

These thoughts are being branded here and there including amongst western leaders to put and end to the war dubbed as the worst Europe experienced since WWII and likely to have long and serious implications starting the the population/ethnic mix as around 6.5 million people have been displaced from their homes in Ukraine and around 3.5 million moving into numbering countries, mostly to Poland.

That is one aspect. Another is the fact Zelensky and the Ukraine government appear to be changing, becoming more flexible in their approach to independence, alliance and geographical proximity. They also want to stop the war with the least amount of concessions. Whilst they are meeting with Russian delegates they want such talk to be purposeful with meaning end results. 

Also, Zelensky has come to realize NATO is a ‘no-go area’ and its western leaders will not accept Ukraine as a member of the military alliance. So in this sense, he altered his prior stance that has been made with dismay as western leaders made it clear they wouldn’t directly intervene in his confrontations with Moscow and the only thing Washington, London, Paris and Berlin are willing to do as they stated is to supply Kiev with weapons and armour to fight the Russians which effectively means prolonging the war.

This point is related to another, and something which disappointed Zelensky as well and that is the fact US President Joe Biden and from the start, refused to implement a ‘no fly zone’ over the Ukraine because of the danger it would effectively trigger WWIII with Russia. Despite the pleading of Zelensky it wasn’t entertained by any western leader meaning he is facing his darkest hours on his own. He can have as much weapons as he wants as long as no western countries are directly involved. 

Disappointments is set in other ways. His appeal to join the European Union - an application he made on a fast track lane - is being rejected, met to say the least, with lackluster and almost nonchalant attitude. The EU leaders say Ukraine has to follow the normal procedure which is long, tedious and bureaucratic. Brussels are in no hurry to let Kiev into the political union no doubt because of the implications of such a move. So Kiev can’t possibly benefit from their European partners at the time being and a "back-door" entry is likely to be stopped.

All these factors are pushing Ukraine to backtrack on its original position although in a checkered manner. But can the status quo really be re-established? That might be difficult at least for the time being because of the death and destruction taking place in the now four-week-old war. Where does one start?Aside from humiliation, and many are talking about taking Putin and Russia to the International Court of Justice, Moscow has other demands from Kiev.

It wants the Zelensky government to recognize the two runaway republics of Donetsk and Luhansk. It also wants Zelensky to recognize Moscow’s claim over the Crimea which it annexed in 2014 as Russian territory. All these will take time to filter through. Meanwhile the war goes on at a deadly pace on with all the dislocation of a country and its people. Maybe this is what Moscow wants to rub the noses of the Ukraine politicians before they get back to real, meaningful negotiations and a political settlement. They say against their demands they have dropped their condition that they want to "denazify" the Ukraine government and its military but is this so?