Political Realignment: A Changing Middle East

It might be an understatement to say there is a definite political realignment in the Middle East.

But with Israeli leaders visiting Arab countries, and in so little time span, it certainly does look that way: On the face of it, we can say poor Palestinians! But its too early to come to a firm conclusion. 

The recent trilateral meeting between Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al Sisi, Israeli Premier Naftali Bennett and the Abu Dhabi strongman Prince Mohammad Ben Zayed in Sharm Al Sheikh is certainly another great surprise in the wayward politics of the Middle East. 

Can we really talk about a new regional order in the Middle East or is it just politics played upside down. One or two years ago, many were talking about the possibility of more normalization efforts between Israel and Arab/Mideastern countries, but now there is no need. 

Israeli leaders are already trotting to different Arab countries whether its to Bahrain, UAE, Morocco, Sudan, Jordan and Egypt and maybe more we don't know about! There is really no need to have more "normalizers". If it does happen, then all well and good for Israel, if not, then not a lot is lost either for the Jewish state seems to be making plenty of headway in Arab capitals. Tel Aviv is entering the door of the Arab world through some of its most important regional, power-wielding actors and at top speed. 

The trilateral meeting in Sharm Al Sheikh was certainly a surprise for its 'get-up-and-go' robustness. At first, it was supposed to be a secret then it wasn't. Much fanfare and ceremony was made about it with lots of photo opportunities branded here and there. After all, Egypt long made peace with Israel. It was Egyptian president Anwar Sadat who first visited Israel in 1978 and later made a treaty with it. So, no need to keep things under the carpet.

What Al Sisi, Bennett and MBZ discussed in the last Sharm meet was strategic issues that included soaring oil prices, the Ukraine crisis, food security, and off course Iran and its nerve-racking nuclear deal that is always with us. Israel and the UAE with now Egypt jumping on board, have always been against the deal as if it gives a Iran a free reign in the region; they were happy when now former president Donald Trump got the US out of the accord in 2018. Now they are dismayed with the Biden administration that is about to bring Washington back into the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) once the Ukraine debacle is over and/or maybe earlier but Russia must behave. 

Whilst the UAE is making it clear they feel at a loss about the deal which they see something that would strengthen Iran further and support the Houthis in Yemen which they are fighting against, the Israelis are taking a different approach to the Biden administration which seems to be on track to final signing. Israel is more tactful no doubt related to its many interests, with America, Congress, the US administration and the White House. They however, want to play their opposition through the back door and push against the deal privately and cryptically.

 Thus, basically the Sharm Al Sheikh meeting is a show of force, not quite a tour de force because it has yet to unravel and may not stop the deal but it shows there is realignment in the Arab world with Israel in the middle. That might be already very dangerous for the Palestinians unless Arab capitals are willing to explain the rationale for their thinking and since politics in this region is being played in a top gear mode.

Take the visit of the Syrian president Bashar Al Assad to Abu Dhabi and the UAE, a few day days before the Sharm Al Sheikh summit. Aside from the fact this was the first meeting for Assad to an Arab country since 2011, the rapport may say a lot about the high stakes of politics in the region. 

The first thing that may come to one's mind is can Abu Dhabi, which now has a peace treaty with Israel and are on good terms, influence Tel Aviv  and moderate the response of the Jewish state to the Damascus regime and stop its missiles and bombs on Syria every time they feel like it and which seems like every other day?   

Then there is the question of the Iranian presence there, not to say anything of the Russian troops stationed in the country. And the final question can Abu Dhabi be the thread that would influence all the actors there, and may just end the bloody, simmering Syrian war that sees no end of ending. Many questions and consequences. The regional map is not easy, its complicated thread with lots of warring sides, certainly a cauldron of all sorts that need to be sorted out. But the Middle East is certainly a mosaic.