There has been a lot of talk about Syria being the next US target in the Middle East, and there seems to be, according to an informed Jordanian politician with close ties to the US embassy in Amman, substantial reason behind Washington’s rush to focus on Syria at time when they are still waging their war on neighboring Iraq. The politician, who has requested anonymity, said Washington has accurate information about a large number of Iraqi Baath party leaders who have already fled Iraq to Syria [prior to the fall of Baghdad] and an even larger exodus after the fall of Iraq to coalition forces.
According to the source, the US believes that these leaders, with the help of Damascus, may form a powerful base for supporting a resistance movement against American forces in Iraq. Such a movement would most likely resort to armed operations and assassination of known Iraqi [formerly opposition] leaders with strong US backing. This, according to Washington, will spread lawlessness in Iraq and subsequently hamper US efforts there.
The source added that the US is fully aware that Damascus (who has boosted the Lebanese Hizbollah Movement during its resistance against Israel, and still harbors many of the more radical Palestinian groups) has ‘issues’ with the American government and their forces in Iraq.
The source does not believe that Syria is ‘naive’ enough to believe that it [or an Iraqi resistance movement] can drive US forces out of Iraq, however does subscribe to the idea that it could make American occupation of Iraq quite costly, and so deter Washington from considering another such ‘adventure’ into Syria.
In turn, the US believes that the primary aim of Damascus is to keep the situation in Iraq turbulent and unstable at best, based on its [US] experience in Lebanon prior to the Taif Agreement of 1989. This, according to the source, is to deter the US from proceeding with the next steps of its general plans for the region and specifically a solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, which could come at the expense of Syria now that it has lost the Lebanese card with the withdrawal of Israeli forces from the south.
“Washington believes that if Damascus is left without ‘maximum pressure’, US forces in Iraq will be endangered should Syria think of establishing a support base for any Iraqi resistance to US occupation,” he asserted.
The source believes that the US views the second phase [administering and policing] of the war a more difficult one than the first. He elaborates on his opinion by saying that “Iraq is a vast country with a geographical area of 450,000 square kilometers…this is in addition to the presence of hundreds of thousands of supporters of Saddam’s old regime, Baath party members, Arab volunteers (Mujahideen who are willing to sacrifice their lives) and millions of civilian hand-weapons not including the thousands of secret arm-cachets which Saddam’s regime assembled over the years. “Furthermore” he adds, “the lack of a legitimate and capable substitute to Iraq’s former leadership, the destruction of the country’s infrastructure, widespread looting and insecurity has aggravated the Iraqis, which has prompted Washington to take every measure in protecting its forces in Iraq.”
“There is also no doubt that Britain shares these concerns with the US, and would most definitely like to see the Syrian borders with Iraq closed to Iraqi Baath party members and Arab volunteers.”
Explaining further, the Jordanian politician said that Washington has demanded of Damascus several things, including putting a halt to all development programs for WMDs, not hinder any potential solution to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, work for the containment of Hizbollah and the expulsion of radical Palestinian organizations from Syria. “These demands coincide with Israeli interests, and the US is fully aware that Syria has complied with these demands a long time ago” he added.
The source went on to justify his statement by saying that “Syria has not developed any weapons of mass destruction, and the US has only addressed this issue very recently to send Syria a stern warning that the recent scenario in Iraq can well be played out in Syria as well.” “As for Hizbollah” he added, “it has now been curbed quite drastically, and it’s well on its way to being marginalized completely! …It has halted its military operations against Israel over the past six months…specifically since the US Secretary of State’s [Colin Powell] most recent visit to Damascus”. “Moreover,” the Jordanian source added, “Hizbollah did not ‘blink an eye’ when the Palestinian uprising was at its peak nor did it do anything when it saw an Arab capital [Baghdad] fall to US forces...perceived by many as occupational. When will it move then? This is strong evidence that the Syrians have in effect contained Hizbullah.”
Despite all of this, the Jordanian politician thinks Washington and Tel Aviv will continue their pressure on Damascus to contain Hizbollah fully, in the hopes that it will only exist as a legal political party active in Lebanon’s electoral process.
As far as peace negotiations between Israelis and Palestinians are concerned, Washington is also convinced that Damascus is incapable of sabotaging the implementation of the ‘roadmap’. The US is certain that Syria will follow the same path and negotiate with Israel, although these [negotiations between Syria and Israel] may come at a later stage as what was witnessed several years after the Oslo and Wadi Araba agreements Israel signed with both the Palestinians and the Jordanians respectively.
When asked about Syria’s ties with Iran, the source described this [relationship] as a ‘non-issue’. “Although the US has put Iran on the “Axis of Evil”, it has been very grateful for the Iranian position vis-à-vis Afghanistan and Iraq. The US believes that Iran is on the right track of reformation and that the Iranian-Syrian relations have been strained due to strategic differences over the Iraqi and Palestinian issues.”
Responding to a question about the possibility of American military action against Syria, he said “the Syrian regime is one of the most pragmatic amongst the Arab regimes. Over the years, Syria was exposed to more pressure from Israel, and Syria has proven its ability in dealing with such pressures, and avoided those battles it perceives as losing or detrimental to its security. Damascus is also aware of the fact that adopting an Iraqi resistance movement is unlike adopting a Palestinian or a Lebanese resistance movement. The game [of having an Iraqi resistance movement] would be played out against the US, which has adopted a ‘preemptive-war’ strategy, one that does not seem to require international approval.”
“Damascus understood this message quite clearly,” he added, “and president Assad ordered the closure of his borders with Iraq. The Iraqi leaders who have already entered Syria have one of two options; to either seek another safe haven for their refuge or face the same destiny as the Kurdish leader - Abdulla Ochalan - or the secretary general of the Palestinian Liberation Front - Mahmoud Abbas - who was denied access to Syria and was returned to Baghdad where he was recently captured by American forces there. This has prompted some members of the PLO to accuse Syria of colluding with Washington as it did with the Kurdish Labor Party leader.”
In summary, the Jordanian politician thinks the Syrian issue is now starting to cool (and now with the help of Powell’s announced visit to the region) due to some Syrian wisdom. ‘Redrawing the map of the region’, ‘a new Middle East’ and other such paraphrases are another debate all together, but one thing we can be sure of is that America’s invasion of Iraq and future plans for that country are not going to be distracted by ‘perceived’ American threats to Syria. (Albawaba.com)
