Despite his knowledge of both the US and Israeli governments’ negative stance towards the new Palestinian government, Palestinian president Yasser Arafat is still going ahead with announcing it. Political observers have noted that the Palestinian president is betting on achieving internal stability through his new government - which he hopes will work in his favor - until the upcoming US presidential elections are over and a president is elected. This, according to the observers, is a ‘real gamble’ in itself.
Since asking the Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC) speaker - Ahmad Qurei (Abu Ala’a) – to form his cabinet as the new PM on September 6, (following Abu Mazen’s resignation), Arafat has made sure that he follow up with Qurei on every step and decision so as the new government will be composed of those that are loyal to Arafat.
In the absence of the same pressure that was put on him by the US and others while forming the outgoing government (Abu Mazen’s), Arafat has managed to achieve his goal without much difficulty.
While many parties are wonder whether Israel will accept dealing with such a government, Arab Knesset member - Azmi Bisharah - feels the Israeli Premier Ariel Sharon “does not care whether the incoming Palestinian government is loyal to Arafat or not, and more concerned about whether the government will be ready to fight a civil war against the armed Palestinian factions.”
Speaking to Al Bawaba via telephone, Bisharah said, “even in the case of Abu Mazen’s government which was not loyal to Arafat, it could not do anything…in my opinion, Arafat should not form the Palestinian government, even while under occupation [by Israel], according to Sharon’s whims,” said Bisharah.
The Knesset member believes the new government is indicative of an apparent attempt to have broader Fatah influence within Palestinian policy-making, saying, “Some Fatah groups used to protest constantly against their absence from the previous cabinets, but the new cabinet will include their representatives - something that will strengthen the new cabinet in its dialogue with other factions.”
“The Palestinian leadership could deprive Israel from any pretext to attacking Palestinians if it succeeds in reaching a cease-fire with the other factions, which may or may not lead to a form of political leadership outside the framework of the incoming government,” added Bisharah.
According to him, “Sharon will be embarrassed if Palestinian national unity is achieved.”
“Overall,” Bisharah believes that “even if a Palestinian government comes to existence with Sharon’s blessing, the Israeli Prime Minister still has no political solution that is acceptable by the Palestinians.”
“If the Israeli government [with its present structure] holds a dialogue with the Palestinians, this dialogue will be fruitless as was the case with the dialogue between Israel and Abu Mazen’s outgoing government. Israel accompanied such dialogue with assassinations, and has refrained from implementing its commitments under the ‘roadmap’,” added Bisharah.
According to several political experts, the ‘roadmap’ - sponsored by the US in cooperation with the UN, EU and Russia in what is referred to as the Quartet - has now reached a deadlock and is expected to face new challenges with the presidential elections in the US now nearing.
Palestinian officials say Arafat recognizes these facts and is seeking to have a government that will guarantee stability within the Palestinian areas during the US elections and until political changes in favor of the Palestinians occur. The Palestinian position has been weakened severely due to the current US administration’s bias towards Israel.
Bisharah agrees with this point of view, saying “at this stage, Palestinians should not expect anything from Sharon, and instead should maintain themselves until the results of the US next presidential elections.”
While Bisharah admits that this approach embodies somewhat of a risk, he reiterated that there are no other viable options amid the lack of proposals [acceptable to the Palestinians] by Sharon to resolve the conflict.
He went on to say that the return of George Bush for a second presidential term would not please the Palestinians. “If he wins,” according to Bisharah, “it will then be up to the American administration to learn from its present experience and mistakes in the region.”
For his part, political analyst on Israeli affairs - Ghazi al Sa’adi - sees that Arafat’s bet on political changes [in the US] following the upcoming American elections is an option that cannot be guaranteed. “The Palestinian situation is extremely difficult and nothing can be guaranteed,” Sa’adi told Al Bawaba, reiterating that the Palestinian’s political future is in fact linked to developments of the current situation in Iraq.
“From a strategic point of view,” Sa’adi believes, “things depend on Iraq rather than George Bush and his administration. If they [America] succeed there, Israel will have a more significant role in the region and will then be able to dictate its terms to the Palestinians. The more the Bush administration’s dilemma in Iraq worsens, the less chance will be for him [Bush] to win in next year’s presidential elections…a new American administration may learn from the mistakes of its predecessor and so there may be a chance for the reshaping of America’s Middle East strategy.”
However, Sa’adi added that both probabilities carry with them quite complicated scenarios.
Until then, according to Sa’adi, any new Palestinian government will be in a wait-and-see phase. “The incoming government shall have to get out of the current state of affairs with the least possible losses, particularly in view of the fact that the Palestinian’s condition will witness more economic and social deterioration,” he said.
For its part, Israel took a preemptive step recently by announcing their security cabinet’s decision to expel Arafat from the West Bank, alleging he is an obstacle to peace. The Israeli decision, which provoked an international controversy, came after two deadly suicide attacks that were carried out by Hamas suicide bombers inside Israel.
While observers still expect Israel will implement its decision (which it has frozen following international pressures) should Hamas or any other faction carry out a major attack inside Israel, Sa’adi rules out this possibility amid what he describes as ‘an understanding between the PA and the various [Palestinian] factions on calm at this stage’.
“There is an understanding between the PA officials and all the other Palestinian factions, including Hamas and Islamic Jihad, on calm…but if Israel continues to liquidate Hamas leaders, the movement may not wait for permission to respond,” said Sa’adi.
Sa’adi also does not rule out that Israel may agree on temporary calm with Qurei’s new government due to the political deadlock it is facing. “Under the current circumstances, and in view of the economic crisis it is facing, Israel may reach an understanding with Qurei’s new government on calm, however without implementing any issues [set out in the ‘roadmap’],” said Sa’adi.
He added, “The Israeli government, which has openly said that it would not deal with a government led by Arafat, left the door open for that possibility by announcing that the new government will be judged by its actions.”
Despite all of this, Sa’adi believes Qurei’s government will not be able to achieve anything of significance in the presence of Sharon’s rightwing government.
“Israel does not want to cooperate with any Palestinian government because it does not want to implement its pledge for peace. For example, Abu Mazen was endorsed by both Israel and the US as Prime Minister, yet Israel did not give him any chance at succeeding...had Israel helped him achievements something, he could have continued and gained widespread popularity despite the obstacles Arafat put in his way,” said Sa’adi.
“The structure of the Sharon government does not allow him to concede anything to the Palestinians. An example of this is the latest Likud Party conference, which announced it had limited Sharon’s power to negotiate by issuing a resolution opposing the establishment of Palestinian state,” concluded Sa’adi. (Albawaba.com)
