Experts argue that a regimented Iran led by a hardliner president might be more confident in dealing with the West.
If pundits and pollsters are proved right, Iran will have a conservative president after the June 18 elections.
But if the favourite hardliner candidate Ebrahim Raisi wins, how will the new presidency shape Iran's relations with the West, primarily the US?
My piece on Iran elections: Hardline judiciary chief Ebrahim Raisi is expected to win. Any serious competition has been winnowed from the race finalizing a consolidation of power by conservatives years in the making.https://t.co/1qSHviCY3L
— Farnaz Fassihi (@farnazfassihi) May 28, 2021
“A more monolithic Iranian system might feel more confident in engaging with the West and less bogged down by infighting,” Ali Vaez, the Iran project director at the International Crisis Group, a prominent American think-tank, tells TRT World.
Although many reformist and moderate leaders were disqualified by the country’s Guardian Council, there is still a thin possibility that a moderate candidate like Abdolnaser Hemmati could clinch a surprise win. Hemmati, Iran's Central Bank governor, was removed from the post on May 30. His rival Raisi is the Chief Justice of Iran.
For many Iran watchers, including Vaez, the power struggle between Iran's reformists and hardliners sends mixed signals to Western governments, making them unsure about Tehran’s real political intentions. It also hurts Tehran to formulate both a consistent and concrete foreign policy towards the West.
But if conservatives win, Iran will have a unitary system of governance, which could rein in the country’s powerful institutions like the Revolutionary Guards, a supporter of hardline policies. The Iranian military establishment is likely to conform to the policy changes made by a government led by the hardliners.
“The stage is set for Raisi’s victory,” says Vaez.
#Iran: Protests in several cities over economic grievances as elections near #IranProtests https://t.co/E3jHCHmzoZ
— mostafa.m (@MostafaMe4) May 31, 2021
Since the signing of the nuclear deal with the US and its allies, Iran’s foreign policy towards the Western world has been highly influenced by the agreement. Under the former Obama administration, Washington and its allies have also thought that relations between Iran and the West could be normalised in the context of the nuclear deal.
This article has been adapted from its original source.
