Dr. Gil Feiler
Venezuela sits at the center of one of the most consequential geopolitical confrontations of the early 2020s. With the world’s largest proven crude oil reserves—about 303 billion barrels—Venezuela theoretically controls nearly 17 % of global oil resources, dwarfing Saudi Arabia and other OPEC producers. Yet decades of mismanagement, corruption, and sanctions have decimated national output, dropping production from over 3 million barrels per day in its heyday to barely over 1 million today.
For President Donald Trump, oil is not just an economic asset but a strategic lever in U.S. foreign policy. The Trump administration has increasingly signaled that its Venezuela policy is shaped by three intertwined intentions: reclaiming influence over Venezuela’s hydrocarbon wealth, reshaping Latin American geopolitics, and confronting authoritarianism as framed in U.S. domestic politics.
In recent months, Trump has escalated pressure dramatically. He designated the Maduro government as a “foreign terrorist organization”, imposed blockades on Venezuelan oil tankers, and authorized seizures of sanctioned vessels, moves Caracas branded as “piracy.” These actions have intermittently driven up oil prices and highlighted the fragility of global supply in an oversupplied market.
On January 3, 2026, Trump announced a large-scale U.S. operation that resulted in the reported capture of President Nicolás Maduro, underscoring the administration’s willingness to combine military action with energy strategy. Trump swiftly declared the United States would be “very strongly involved” in Venezuela’s oil industry after Maduro’s removal. Such statements reveal an underlying preference for direct American influence over Venezuela’s fossil fuel sector, contrasting sharply with Caracas’s pivot toward China and Russia since the 2010s.
Beyond military and coercive measures, the Trump White House has floated the idea of reinviting U.S. oil majors back into Venezuela’s hydrocarbon fields once political conditions change. However, major firms remain reluctant, wary of unstable governance and extensive infrastructure decay—a legacy of decades of underinvestment.
Critics argue that Trump’s rhetoric cloaks resource capture under the guise of counter-narcotics and democracy promotion. Venezuelan authorities and many regional actors see these moves as imperialistic, aimed at securing energy dominance.
If Trump’s strategy succeeds in establishing a U.S.-aligned government in Caracas, Washington could near-monopolize access to some of the Western Hemisphere’s largest energy reserves—a shift with far-reaching implications for OPEC dynamics, global oil markets, and U.S.–China energy competition.
