Thai voters look set to elect telecoms magnate Thaksin Shinawatra as their next prime minister on Saturday, punishing Prime Minister Chuan Leekpai's Democrats for the slow pace of recovery since the 1997 financial crisis.
Thaksin's Thai Rak Thai party has led all the way in the opinion polls, suffering only a small dip when the country's anti-corruption body indicted the businessman-turned-politician on graft charges last month.
Despite the ruling, and the threat of a five-year ban from politics which will be decided by the Constitutional Court within a few months, Thaksin has vowed to claim the premiership if Thai Rak Thai wins the poll.
Business leaders and analysts have expressed dismay at the prospect of a chaotic aftermath to the election, where Thaksin may rule for a brief period before being banished from politics.
But with support for the Democrats running at 23.3 percent against 40.2 percent for Thak Rak Thai, according to the latest Bangkok University poll, pundits are tipping a victory for the upstarts, who will then work to cobble together a multi-party coalition.
Thaksin made a dramatic appeal for support as the campaign drew to a close this week, portraying himself as a wounded fighter determined to win the battle.
"They want me to be premier. They tell me that even if it's for a short time they want me to take the post to implement party policies," he told the Bangkok Post.
"My vision is not blurred. I can still aim my gun and pull the trigger," he said. "Before I die I want to kill our enemies first, and these are poverty, drugs and corruption."
Amid calls for him to step down gracefully, or at least name a successor in the event his appeal in the Constitutional Court fails, he insisted he would cling on to power for as long as possible.
"Abandon the post and people will applaud for five minutes and forget you forever," he said.
Voters are evidently not deterred by the warnings that Thaksin's plan could create a period of uncertainty that would send investors scattering, delay major business decisions and suffocate the ailing stock exchange.
"People are saying, 'We know it's risky move but what else can we do?'," says Chayachoke Chulasiriwongs from Chulalongkorn University's department of international relations.
"They are frustrated with the Democrats' inability to solve Thailand's economic problems and feel that they are selling off the country."
Pollwatch Foundation Thailand has urged Thaksin to make a graceful exit, fearing widespread and unruly protests if he is forced to stand down after taking up the premiership.
"This is a new era of political reform where we must respect the law. If the law has a damaging effect on a party or politician then that is the way it must be," said the monitoring group's secretary Somchai Srisuthiyakorn.
The furore is likely to complicate the already difficult task of revitalising the economy just as analysts warn it may be slipping back into recession.
Persistent weakness in the baht currency, high oil prices and a mountain of non-performing loans that threaten to overwhelm banks and suffocate business expansion plans remain serious problems in Thailand.
Thai Rak Thai has proposed a three-year debt moratorium for impoverished farmers, and wants the government to take over banks' non-performing loans, ideas many analysts say will reinforce Thailand's culture of non-payment.
In another populist initiative, he has promised a million baht for every village in the country.
Chuan's Democrats have vowed to continue emphasizing banking sector reform and improving bankruptcy laws in order to crack down on recalcitrant borrowers.
And the prime minister has argued that the task of preventing Thailand from relapsing into crisis is one for tried and trusted hands.
Chayachoke said that argument is likely to be ignored by an electorate frustrated over the lack of progress made since 1997, despite Thailand's diligent adherence to the International Monetary Fund's crisis program.
"People don't blame the IMF or the Asian Development Bank, but they blame the Democrats for giving them too much power over the country," he said, pointing to the nationalism that has reared its head during the campaign.
"They are saying, 'We don't want to walk down this path any more.'" -- BANGKOK (AFP)
© 2001 Al Bawaba (www.albawaba.com)
