ALBAWABA - On December 29, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will meet with U.S. President Donald Trump at Mar-a-Lago. This meeting is seen as very important for deciding whether Israel will still have a lot of say in Gaza policy or whether it will become a secondary player in an international process that is increasingly shaped by Washington, Doha, and Ankara.
Israeli commentators say that Netanyahu is very worried about the meeting because they think Trump will try to get him to make concessions that would make him look like the person standing in the way of what the White House calls a "historic peace."
According to Maariv, Netanyahu's inner circle is scared of a "Zelensky scenario," where he is not abandoned but instead publicly portrayed as the leader who is holding back progress if he doesn't agree with Trump's vision. Meanwhile, U.S. officials are hinting that the next meeting won't be like the last ones, which were friendly. Instead, Trump will make clear demands and expectations and ask Netanyahu if he is ready to move forward or be called the problem.
Policy gaps are getting bigger over Gaza.
Israel is more worried now that the U.S. has moved away from its long-standing support for Israel in Gaza. Washington is now openly saying that it supports Turkey's inclusion in the multinational stabilization force. This goes against what people thought before, which was that Israel had the power to block the force's composition. American diplomats say that Ankara's involvement is a benefit, not a threat, which goes against what Israel has called a strategic boundary for years.
A similar change is happening when it comes to getting Hamas to give up its weapons. Netanyahu says that Gaza's rebuilding and political transition can only start after Hamas's military infrastructure is completely destroyed. However, the changing American approach sees disarmament as an ongoing goal that is part of the larger process of stabilization, governance, and rebuilding, not a condition for it.
New Ways to Strengthen U.S. Control
At the same time, the Biden administration is putting in place operational tools that would allow progress even if Israel doesn't fully agree. The proposed plan calls for a U.S. major general to lead the stabilization force and a "Peace Council" led by Trump to keep an eye on money flows, rebuilding priorities, and international coordination. Even though there are no U.S. troops on the ground, these steps would give Washington a lot of power over what happens in Gaza after the war.
Netanyahu's stance going into Mar-a-Lago
Netanyahu plans to go into the meeting with a list of core principles that he thinks can't be changed. These include not allowing any Turkish military presence in Gaza, not starting any rebuilding until Hamas has completely lost its military power, and allowing Israel to do whatever it needs to do to stop the group from rebuilding its forces. Trump, on the other hand, wants commitments in the opposite direction. He wants deadlines, a clear list of countries that will be involved (including Turkey, if possible), and a more flexible definition of how and when Hamas must give up its weapons.
A Meeting That Could Change Roles
Israeli analysts say that the summit may end with the usual signs of unity, like happy pictures on the lawn of Mar-a-Lago and claims of "significant progress." But behind the scenes, Netanyahu may be under pressure that makes him change Israel's expectations without anyone knowing. The real question is whether he is willing to pay a political price for not giving in to U.S. demands, or whether he will agree to a deal that slowly takes away Israel's control over the most important parts of Gaza's future. They say that the outcome will show whether Netanyahu is still the one who makes decisions about Israel's policy or if he becomes the voice of someone else who made a decision for him.
