Qatar: Olive Branch Arms Deal
On June 14th the United States and Qatar Signed an agreement worth an initial $12 billion on for the purchase of F-15 fighter planes, the Qatar News Agency and Al Jazeera reported.
The size and timing of the deal could be interpreted as contradictory, given that the Trump administration has justified the unprecedented actions taken against the Emirate by Saudi Arabia and its allies over the past two weeks.
In November, the US approved the possible sale of up to 72 F-15QA aircraft to Qatar for $21.1bn (£16.5bn). It is unclear whether this was the same transaction. In an email statement, the Pentagon remarked that the sale "will give Qatar a state-of-the-art capability and increase security cooperation and interoperability between the United States and Qatar." There are also difficult to confirm reports of joint-US manoeuvres with the Qatari navy.
The timing of the announcement is a signal that the defense relationship between the United States and Qatar remains strong, despite efforts by Saudi Arabia and its GCC allies to lobby for the removal of the al-Udeid Air Base out of Qatar.
This would support previous statements that the military within the United States has been uncomfortable with the extent of the diplomatic fallout with Qatar, and are keen to protect US defense posture in the region, and the al-Udeid Air Base in particular.
According to Sipri data, the US military signed 11 billion worth of contracts for Apache helicopters, Patriot and Javelin missiles in 2014, in addition to a 794 million dollar contract for C-130 and C-17 transport aircraft in 2008.
Egypt: Saudi Arabia and the Red Sea Islands
AFP: February 20, 1997 shows US F-15 warplanes landing at a Qatari base in Doha 20 February. The United States agreed a major warplane sale to Qatar and began manoeuvres with the emirate's navy on June 15, 2017, underscoring its commitment to their military alliance despite Doha's rift with other Gulf allies.
A controversial bill to secede control of the Red Sea islands of Tiran and Sanafir to Saudi Arabia was passed by a majority of lawmakers in Egypt’s House of Representatives earlier in the week.
When the agreement was first announced in 2016, Egypt saw the largest protests since President Mohammed al-Sisi took office in 2014. Over the past week there have been protests against the transfer of the islands across Egypt, with police raiding homes and at least 40 arrested in Cairo.
Critics have referred to a deal as a “sell off of sovereignty”, suggesting than the land has been bartered for billions of dollars in aid to Egypt. Analysts have suggested that in addition to growing Egyptian-Israeli military cooperation in the Sinai peninsula, the transfer of the two islands will help to augment Israel’s undeclared relationship with Saudi-Arabia.
The islands were used by the British on the eatern frontier with the Ottomon Empire in 1906, and as a military base during World War II, even after Egypt had declared independence in 1922. During the Six-Day War in 1967 the islands were occupied by Israel, then returned in 1982 as part of the 1979 peace treaty.
An article in Foreign Affairs explains objection to the transfer of land to Saudi-Arabia in simplistic terms, as both chauvinistic and nationalistic: “The legal and historical issues behind the transfer have been overshadowed by a combination of hyper-nationalism, unleashed by Sisi’s coup of July 2013, and long-standing Egyptian resentments of Gulf wealth.”
The article references rumors from 2011, which accused former President Mohamed Morsi of considering territorial concessions to Qatar in the Suez Canal, to Sudan in the Hala’ib Triangle and the Palestinians in Sinai. The uproar in regard to these claims led to an explicit clause in the 2014 constitution, which promised a referendum on any treaties affecting rights of sovereignty. In regard to the Red Sea Islands, there has been neither a referendum nor consultation.
For President Sisi, the transfer of the islands maybe one way to signal a closer relationship with Saudi Arabia after Egypt's refusal to send ground troops to Yemen, as well as Egypt's tacit support for Russia in support of Bashar Al Assad in Syria.
Because the armed forces is closely connected to the President, it is unclear that the security establishment will undertake another major political intervention, even if Parliament and elite opinion have voiced disquiet in regard to the transfer of the islands. While the domestic political cost of the transfer of the islands is unclear such a decision, if taken, will not be inconsequantial.
