There is no doubt that Hizbullah greatest achievement was forcing Israeli army out of Lebanese soil. However, five years after this landmark victory it seems that the stride of the Lebanese resistance movement is enveloped in mist.
The failure of Hizbullah’s assault on Israel last week - the largest attack on Israeli targets since October 2000 - has raised several questions regarding the status of the Shiite movement, which until recently, was considered one of the most powerful forces in Lebanon. The attempt to capture Israeli soldiers to use them in a prisoner exchange deal resulted in the death of four Hizbullah fighters, three of whose bodies were left in the Israeli enemy's hands. These bodies were returned to Lebanon following the Lebanese government's request, after a similar demand by Hizbullah was rejected.
Timing of the attack (on the eve of Lebanon's Independence Day) and its outcome have damaged the image – even in Israeli eyes – of Hizbullah being a sophisticated military organization with the ability to hurt Israel when it pleases. Many Lebanese have now begun to speak of Hizbullah’s actions as "amateurish," rather than professional and effective. Consequently, the image of the movement's leader, Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, has also been dealt a blow. Throughout the years, Nasrallah was considered one of the most reasonable leaders—not only in Lebanon, but also in the entire Middle East region. Lebanese sources said that it seems that "Nasrallah fell into the trap set for him by an inexperienced Syrian president" who wanted the recent flare up along the Israeli-Lebanese border.
Thus, it is not surprising that there are growing calls in Lebanon to disarm Hizbullah or to integrate it into the Lebanese army, as demanded by U.N. Security Council Resolution 1559 calling for the disarmament of the movement. In this regards, former Lebanese Prime Minister Gen. Michel Aoun was recently quoted by An Nahar daily as calling on Hizbullah to lay down its arms and merge into Lebanon's political life. Others, like Lebanese MP Tueini, advocate deploying Lebanon’s army along the Israeli border.
The recent failure on the battleground can be seen as yet another setback to Hizbullah since the February 14 assassination of ex-Premier Rafiq Hariri. Syria’s withdrawal from Lebanon and the growing anti-Syrian sentiment on the Lebanese street were in complete contradiction to Hizbullah's interests and policies. The isolation of the Syrian patrons in the international arena has pushed Hizbullah to the corner of the domestic political arena.
Lebanese sources, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, told that the recent military flop will likely create internal tension between the organization’s political leadership and its military command. Such lack of confidence in Hizbullah’s military apparatus may drag it into an internal turmoil, the sources projected. In fact, there are already unconfirmed reports about strained relations between Nasrallah and Hizbullas’ head of operations, Imad Mughniyeh, and other officials in the south of Lebanon.
According to these sources, Hizbullah was alarmed by the news published in Israel ahead of the attack of the likelihood of such an assault. Leading figures in Hizbullah believe that details regarding the imminent operation were leaked from the group’s military arm to Lebanese security agencies, and from them to the West and the Israeli intelligence.
Lebanon underwent major political changes in 2005 and it seems much is yet to come for the country as well in 2006. The current Lebanese government is no longer a tool for carrying out the wishes of Damascus. Now, and especially following the recent military fiasco, Hizbullah and Nasrallah must fight to preserve their relevancy in Lebanese politics. One thing is certain: what was acceptable in recent years is no longer the consensus of Lebanon's public opinion. In other words, according to Lebanese sources, Nasrallah must lead his movement from the era of resistance into the era of development. If he fails to do so, and continues to risk Lebanon's stability and interests with further military adventures in the south, Hizbullah is doomed to come under growing pressure to disarm and ultimately forfeit its prominent position within Lebanese politics.
