In December 1979, the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan and most experts in the Soviet Union and the West suggested the invasion and occupation would end in a quick Soviet victory. Their expectations were much like Richard Perle’s, “Iraq cakewalk theory”, as Rumsfeld’s friend and advisor described his now failed, under strength strategy for the Bush invasion of Iraq.
Now Perle has publicly resigned over questionable business dealings related to the conflict but this is probably an attempt to distance the Rumsfeld’s ties to Perle and Iraq defeat and current stalemate.
You know the history. The people of Afghanistan resisted bravely and the United States as well as other Arab nations began to support thousands of “Moslem Freedom Fighters” including Bin Laden. Over time the Soviet Forces were defeated and this public defeat, led to questions around the world of the much-vaunted Soviet military and its ability to project Soviet power. This Soviet military defeat eventually led to the total collapse of communism and the Soviet Union.
Although I originally opposed the Bush oil resource invasion of Iraq, I wrongly assumed that a tactical victory would be quick and our problems would come from the long-term occupation of the country. My fear was the occupation of a Moslem nation would over time create a guerilla war in the occupied area, more hatred throughout the Arab world and increased terrorist recruits and attacks against American targets overseas and at home.
Washington’s failure to meet its “cakewalk” projections now compounds the short-term risks of the conflict that dwarf my earlier concerns. Here is the current situation:
Bush must now decide whether to attempt capturing Baghdad with too few forces and quickly end the war but risk a tactical defeat and maybe even a major reversal like the “Saddamgrad” I wrote about in an earlier article.
Moslem extremists and even former Iraqi expatriates are now trickling back into Iraq to fight the Americans. Arab nationalism, extremism and pride are on the upswing as Moslems win the first tactical victories against “colonialist nations” including the United States, Great Britain and Israel since World War Two. We know that Korea, China, Iran and other potential adversaries are following the military situation closely and every enemy in the world is just waiting for even a minor Iraqi tactical victory.
Unless, Bush wins the war quickly, the Washington Empire risks a shattering of the ”invincible American military image” which will translate into higher morale and increased resistance by Iraqi forces. Second, the trickle of Moslem extremist fighters into Iraq will turn into a flood of popular support. Third, the limited government support and remaining public support at home and abroad for our invasion will vanish. Forth, the likelihood of Arab states wanting to improve their public opinion at home may well begin to offer military assistance to Iraq. Fifth, other nations like China, Korea, and Iran might take advantage of the growing quagmire of American forces to quickly move to achieve their military objectives that the U.S. will not be able to counter.
Finally, the Bush War will have transformed Saddam Hussein, the most unpopular, despotic, hated leader in the Arab world into a hero and the leading Arab statesman in the world.
I’ll bet Bush wishes he had followed the advice of an earlier American president, George Washington. “The great rule of conduct for us, in regard to foreign nations is, in extending our commercial relations to have with them as little political connections as possible. It is our true policy to steer clear of permanent alliances, with any portion of the foreign world.” --George Washington
Well, it’s too late now to follow the advice of George Washington. Either America wins the war soon with a successful drive on Baghdad together with all the risks or Bush had better start reading up on what went wrong with the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan and the fall of the Soviet Union.
Second, if other nations in the region are propelled into the conflict due to our apparent weakness, then Bush should also begin reviewing another over extended military campaign with long supply lines, guerilla fighters and massed armor formations where another empire turned on a former ally. It is called “Barbarossa”, the code name for the Nazi invasion of the Soviet Union. If this happens, our troops and our political leaders will pray for another Afghanistan.
Ron Holland is a freedom oriented investment and political writer and speaker. He is the author of 2 books and over 60 special reports and articles on liberty, the Middle East and financial topics. He characterizes himself as free-market, anti-Washington and pro-South. He is the Editor of Dixie Daily News and SwissGnomes.com. His e-mail is [email protected] He has also written Saddamgrad - Saddam Hussein's secret plan to defeat the Bush oil crusade at the gates of Baghdad!
© 2003 Al Bawaba (www.albawaba.com)
