Terry Lacey*
So Benjamin Netanyahu may lead the next Israeli coalition. He says he will not be tied by pledges by outgoing Prime Minister Olmert to withdraw settlers from occupied Palestinian territory. He is opposed to political progress on the twin state solution, talks on borders or dividing (or sharing) Jerusalem. (Patrick Moser, AFP, Jakarta Post 21.02.09).
He prefers economic rather than political progress with the Palestinians. In his acceptance speech he ignored Israeli-Palestinian peace talks, did not mention the twin state and stressed the threat from Iran. He has vowed to topple the Hamas rulers of Gaza. (Jakarta Globe 21-22.02.09 and AFP).
When last in power he blocked the Oslo 1 peace talks on the twin state, and would not accept commitments made by the previous government of Yitzhak Rabin.
It is therefore clear the Peace Quartet led by the United States, but including the EU, Russia and the UN, may become very frustrated with the elected Israeli government.
Informed observers say that the Quartet believes the new Israeli government should accept political positions on peace agreed by previous Israeli governments, to engage in peace talks on the twin state, stop expansion of settlements in occupied territories, stop the blockade of the elected Hamas government, and accept its right to exist.
In the event the Israeli government does not see sense, the Quartet may have no choice but to agree to back the moderate President Shimon Peres to form a rival Israeli government, to mobilize the moderates and pursue talks on the twin state.
The Quartet may even start funding a non-elected Israeli government, based on Haifa and Tiberius, to handle all trade and economic relations with the outside, to encourage moderate Israelis to rally to peace, while blockading the rest of Israel.
If the elected but banned Israeli government fails to agree the Quartet position, there may be the risk of Western airstrikes against Israeli settlements on Palestinian territory and right wing suburbs of Tel Aviv, carefully avoiding collateral damage to Labour or Kadima voters.
Since there is a grave danger that this terrible sequence of events may now unfold, responsible people everywhere should try to persuade the Peace Quartet not to take such an extreme collision course with the Israeli right, especially since similar tactics in similar circumstances failed to work with Hamas since 2006.
Instead of taking such an extreme course of action the Quartet should see if the Kadima and Labour parties might not join with Likud, Yisrael Beiteinu and Shas in a national coalition.
This coalition could form a government which could advocate no twin state on Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays, and try to conclude negotiations on a twin state on Tuesdays, Thursdays and Sundays.
Friday night and Saturdays could be a holiday, since it would be hard work maintaining a government with two positions on nearly everything, on alternate days.
The two parts of the coalition could set up different time zones on alternate days to make it clear that they did not agree on the time. They could however agree to disagree. The time for Saturdays could be changed once a week so both blocks would have a fair share of control of holiday time.
Whatever coalition the Israelis come up with, maybe the Quartet could desist from blockades and try a new tactic of listening to people who are elected, and stop trying to force solutions on people who may not want them, or prefer to evolve them their own way, and in their own good time.
The international community should reasonably ask that there should be no wars while this longer path to a durable peace is taken, and should insist on the economic progress which even Bibi Netanyahu says he may agree to.
Aside from that lets stop telling the Israelis and the Palestinians what to do and help them to do what they want to do, once they and we have discovered what it is.
* Terry Lacey is a development economist who writes from Jakarta on modernization in the Muslim world, investment and trade relations with the EU and Islamic banking
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