A key foreign policy pledge during the Biden campaign was a return to the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), often referred to as the Iran deal. In 2018, Donald Trump pulled out of the deal and attempted to reimpose UN sanctions on Iran. Biden must act quickly or face domestic and international fallout.
In an article published in September 2020, Biden wrote: “Five years ago, American-led diplomacy produced a deal that ensured it would take Iran at least a year to produce enough fissile material for one bomb. Now -- because Trump let Iran off the hook from its obligations under the nuclear deal --Tehran's ‘breakout time’ is down to just a few months.”
The task for the new Biden administration is to return to the deal, hoping that it will serve as a springboard for future negotiations that can stop Iran from achieving the status of a nuclear power. Tehran seems enthusiastic about the prospect. Crippled by harsh US sanctions on the oil and banking industries, President Hassan Rouhani’s government has been vocal in its support for a return to diplomacy.
The task for the new Biden administration is to return to the deal, hoping that it will serve as a springboard for future negotiations that can stop Iran from achieving the status of a nuclear power. Tehran seems enthusiastic about the prospect
George Perkovich, Ken Olivier and Angela Nomellini Chair and Vice President for Studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told Al Bawaba that the Biden administration is aligned in their strategy on JCPOA. “I think the administration is united on the range of objectives toward Iran – avoiding Iran’s acquisition of nuclear weapons, ending its support of terrorism, improving human rights, releasing the Namazis and other prisoners, curtailing its missile programme.”
“The question is whether and how all these things could be pursued most effectively, and within that question is the notion that achieving all these objectives will be more difficult if Iran’s nuclear programme is unconstrained. This is why priority is placed on reinvigorating the JCPOA – which did constrain Iran’s nuclear programme.”
“Here the subsidiary question is whether it would be feasible to modify/enhance the JCPOA, or rather the only way forward is to restore it and then, once that is done, see whether the parties could make a bigger deal of more constraint for more sanctions relief. I guess the administration will agree that the most feasible way is to restore compliance-for-compliance with the JCPOA.”
I guess the administration will agree that the most feasible way is to restore compliance-for-compliance with the JCPOA
A few days after the inauguration of Biden, the Foreign Affairs Minister of Iran, Mohammad Javad Zarif, wrote in an article that Trump had “tried to torpedo a major multilateral diplomatic achievement and then initiated a campaign of blunt economic warfare targeting the Iranian people, in effect punishing Iran for its adherence to a UN-endorsed agreement.” Biden, Tehran hopes, will act differently.
The longer the US dithers, the greater the risk that anti-Iran factions within Washington will argue against the JCPOAl. Guy Burton, Adjunct Professor of International Relations at Vesalius College in Brussels, told Al Bawaba that “there may also be a window of opportunity which constrains the US as well with Iran. The longer they leave getting back to the JCPOA - with or without new negotiations on issues like ballistic missiles - the more it may play into the conservative/hardliners' hands ahead of the election and weaken the ‘moderates’ like Rouhani. The Chinese may well sense that too, which may be another reason for their stronger stance.”
“tried to torpedo a major multilateral diplomatic achievement and then initiated a campaign of blunt economic warfare targeting the Iranian people, in effect punishing Iran for its adherence to a UN-endorsed agreement."
As Congress moves to impeach Donald Trump and the Covid-19 pandemic, together with the economic havoc it has wrought, takes its toll on the US, Biden’s ability to make a quick policy-reversal is in doubt. Despite political backing from fellow Democrats, it could be a long road to re-establishing ties between Washington and Tehran.
