Top Market Movers: EURGBP, GBPUSD, GBPCHF

Published September 29th, 2006 - 12:47 GMT
Al Bawaba
Al Bawaba

Currency

Daily Percentage Change (%)

Intraday High

Intraday Low

Day's Range (pips)

EURGBP

+0.8%

0.6777

0.6718

59

GBPUSD

-0.6%

1.8921

1.8722

199

GBPCHF

-0.5%

2.3530

2.3366

164

 

Click Here For PDF Version



EURGBP<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />

 

Sentiment worked in favor of the Euro major leg of the EURGBP cross pair following the meltdown subsequent to the ONS error.  Although attributed in part to a correction following the weeks break below the cross technical level, the recent dip below the 0.6700 figure looked overextended and was ripe for a temporary pullback.  In the overnight, fundamentally boosting the reversal were reports in regards to the employment picture in the Eurozone region.  For the record, unemployment in the regions largest economy, <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" />Germany, was in line at 10.6 percent as the unemployment change was less than consensus expectations.  However, with UK rate hikes now questionable, the factor most responsible for the days jump were comments by European Central Bank executive board member Jose Manuel Gonzalez-Paramo.  Paramo stated that global inflationary risks remained intact as the previous global dampening effects waned and remained wary of higher crude oil potential.  Subsequently, comments were made as contracts on the NYMEX rose higher on an announced production cut by OPEC members, trading at $63.00 in mid week action.  Practically ensuring further tightening into year end, the comments spurred euro buying against a dollar bearish backdrop.

 

GBPUSD

UK data was positive on the session with Nationwide housing prices continuing to show a positive stabilization of valuations.  For the month of September, housing prices rose 1.3 percent against a consensus 0.4 percent increase.  Annually, the figure was boosted higher by 8.2 percent and continues the uptrend that has been the cornerstone of the recent uptick in consumer spending.  Even more positive for the pound sterling the dreary gross domestic product results from the worlds largest economy.  Lending to further dollar bearishness, conversely pound bullishness, annualized GDP rose 2.6 percent on a finalized report.  The figures were far less than the 2.9 percent expected by the consensus and considerably lower than the 5 percent expected in the first quarter.  Evident of a slowdown in the US, the surveys should have ultimately bolstered the British pound.  However, supportive of a dollar move higher, a report released by the Financial Times noted that the Office of National Statistics admitted to an error that was calculated in a wage model that boosted inflationary suggestions.  These suggestions were highly focused on by the Bank of England in keeping to a hawkish bias.  With the figure now lowered, evident of more tame inflationary pressure, the market shifted gears pitting a possible halt in the tightening bias. 

Emerging bids are adding to technical support at the 1.8700 figure in the GBPUSD major for the 60-minutes chart.  Adding to bullish notions are positive readings in the prices oscillators, both MACD and Stochastic are showing golden cross formations.  Subsequently , MACD is also showing a bullish convergence which is adding to the probable move higher on profit taking in the Asian session.  As a result, bulls are eyeing the 1.8900 in the intermediate with a break lower taking bears on a likely ride to the 1.8650 before the weekend.

 

GBPCHF

Mostly spurred by repositioning in an overextended rally, the GBPCHF declined through key technical levels, now consolidating above the 2.3370 figure (61.8 percent fib level from the 9/11-9/15 bull wave) in the hourly perspective.  Now trading at 2.3390, plenty of upside support is apparent in the market as bids are likely to emerge on profit taking, initiating some long positions in the Asian hours.  Adding to the notion are convergences in both the MACD and Stochastic, with the bullish convergence in the MACD contributing to positive suggestions.  As a result, bidding is likely to be eyeing the first level of reistance at the 2.3435 (50 percent fib level from the aforementioned move) as plenty of offers are likely to keep pressure on the cross.   Break above, and bulls are likely to gain momentum for a positive jump to the 2.3550 test, formally focused on.  Nonetheless, this does not preclude a break lower, as bearish players are maintaining potential moves lower to 2.3250.