1. EURAUD
2. EURCAD
3. EURNZD
EURAUD EUR/AUD has rallied off of the 6/12 low at 1.6810 to just above the 20 day SMA at 1.7022. However, a large head and shoulders reversal pattern that began on 5/22 favors a bearish bias going forward. Daily oscillators are mixed as momentum is negative and MACD slopes down, but CCI and RSI are just above their midpoints of 0 and 50. Probably most revealing is a trendline that dates to synthetic prices in October 1998 that resisted price on 6/7 and 6/8 at 1.7352. The 6/14 high at 1.7122 is initial resistance and a break above there would distort the mentioned head and shoulders pattern.
EURCAD After tumbling below 1.4000, EUR/CAD has rallied to the confluence of the 10 day SMA / 50 day SMA at 1.4092/1.4145. Yesterdays reverse hammer was particularly bearish but the pair has rallied back near yesterdays high of 1.4112. A break above there would negate the bearish implications from the reverse hammer and expose the 20 day SMA at 1.4145. Oscillators on the hourly are falling from near overbought levels and therefore favor shorts.
EURNZD EUR/NZD trades in a bearish descending triangle that began on 5/15. The pair has rallied for 4 straight days but the choppy and slow rally has led to negative divergence with oscillators on the hourly which reinforces a bearish view. A short term double top from yesterday and todays highs at 2.0359 is initial resistance with a break above exposing the 78.6% fibo of 2.0574-1.9894 at 2.0359. The confluence of the 10 and 20 day SMAs just below at 2.0254/61 serves as initial support.
Glossary of Terms
CCI(20) 20 day Commodity Channel Index
> 0 bullish
0 > bearish
> 100 extremely bullish
-100 > - extremely bearish
RSI(14) 14 day Relative Strength Index
> 50 bullish
50 > bearish
> 70 overbought
30 > - oversold
MACD ? - MACD slope (MACD MACD[1])
> 0 bullish
0 > - bearish
Mom(8) 8 day Momentum (shorter-term direction)
> 0 bullish
0 > - bearish
ATR(14) 14 day Average True Range (volatility)
Medium 75th percentile* > ATR(14) > 25th percentile*
High - > 75th percentile*
Low 25th percentile* >
ADX(14) 14 day Average Directional Index (directional strength)
> 30 strong
30 > - weak
*measured against past 3 months
