We have focused on a 61.8% Fibonacci is at 108.50 as a possible reversal point but have also mentioned that “due to the EW structure on the daily, COT data suggests that a more pronounced rally is possible if not probable.” An alternate count is in red and suggests that the USDJPY will exceed 110.11 before bearish potential. One reason that we think a bigger rally is underway is that the structure from 104.97 looks far from complete -- as do the rallies in the Yen crosses. Keep risk at 106.99 and potential support is in the 107.30/50 zone. It is possible that a significant top is in place at 108.59. However, there is no trade from the short side until we see 5 waves down from this level followed by a 3 wave rally.
STRATEGY: Bullish, against 106.99, target TBD
