1. CADJPY
2. CHFJPY
3. NZDJPY
CADJPY CAD/JPY remains at the upper end of a nearly 7 month range. The pair has broken below a medium term trendline that began on 5/18 at 98.39 but has since retraced 61.8% of the move down from 104.40. For the range scenario to continue, CAD/JPY needs to fall and test the lower end of the range. Resistance is at the 6/29 high of 104.40 as well as the 12/6/05 high of 105.02. A break above these levels could lead to a breakout towards the 138.2% fibo of 105.02-97.10 at 108.00. The recent bearish divergence with oscillators on the daily favor a continued range and thus slower prices.
CHFJPY CHF/JPY is a replica of EUR/JPY and may be near the end of a long term 5 wave bull trend (from 9/7 low at 58.83 see weekly chart below). Further, the long term 5th wave begins on 11/10/2003 at 78.89 and takes the shape of an ending diagonal (as does EUR/JPY). The upper resisting line from the diagonal sits near 94.00 which would be resistance. Typically though, this pattern ends with a quick spike through the top of the pattern before the ensuing downtrend. Thus, the pair certainly has the potential to rally to either the 138.2% or 161.8% fibos of 93.11-87.63 at 95.19 or 96.54.
NZDJPY Kiwi has consolidated and digested losses to 68.90 in a choppy range. The daily shows a possible reversal as the pair has bounced from the lower Bollinger band on the daily. Also visible on the daily chart is a inverse head and reversal pattern. The pattern would be completed on a break above the neckline, which currently sits at around 71.33 (the neckline declines roughly 6 pips per day). The 6/30 and 7/3 lows are initial support at 69.32/37 with the 6/28 and 6/29 lows at 68.90/69.02 as additional support.
Glossary of Terms
CCI(20) 20 day Commodity Channel Index
> 0 bullish
0 > bearish
> 100 extremely bullish
-100 > - extremely bearish
RSI(14) 14 day Relative Strength Index
> 50 bullish
50 > bearish
> 70 overbought
30 > - oversold
MACD ? - MACD slope (MACD MACD[1])
> 0 bullish
0 > - bearish
Mom(8) 8 day Momentum (shorter-term direction)
> 0 bullish
0 > - bearish
ATR(14) 14 day Average True Range (volatility)
Medium 75th percentile* > ATR(14) > 25th percentile*
High - > 75th percentile*
Low 25th percentile* >
ADX(14) 14 day Average Directional Index (directional strength)
> 30 strong
30 > - weak
*measured against past 3 months
