- EURJPY just shy of potential trendline resistance
- GBPJPY at trendline resistance
- CADJPY resistance from Fibonacci
The rally from the January low in the EURJPY can be counted as an impulse (5 waves), which I maintain completes wave C of an expanded flat that began at the October 2008 low. The implications are bearish as price should eventually decline below the 2009 low. Early stages of a decline (or advance) are often choppy, much like the decline from 139.17. I favor the downside now against 137.00.
After plummeting below 147.00 earlier in the month, the GBPJPY stages an impressive rally that reached 156.51. The pair recently broke below the support line that defined that advance, suggesting that the trend has turned back down. Price is at resistance right now from a short term line. Favor weakness below 156.51.
The CHFJPY is the same as the EURJPY count. The larger trend is again considered down against 90.01. Staying below there keeps the series of lower highs and lows intact.
After breaking below channel support that had held since January, the CADJPY has staged an impressive recovery. The rally has reached the 61.8% of the decline from 89.43 and the former channel support line reinforces resistance. Expectations are for a retest of the early July low / 200 day SMA with 98.43 remaining intact.
The AUDJPY top and reversal count is valid against 78.42. A 3rd wave decline is considered underway from that level. An initial target is 66.80 (origin of the ending diagonal).
I wrote last update that “a daily close below the line extended from the 4/28 and 5/18 lows would suggest that a top is in place. The NZDJPY closed below the line on July 2 and the drop extended to 56.86. Exceeding .6343 would delay the bearish forecast and expose potential resistance at 65 and 70.
Jamie Saettele publishes Daily Technicals every weekday morning (930 am EST), COT analysis (published Monday mornings), technical analysis of currency crosses throughout the week (EUR on Tuesday, JPY on Wednesday, GBP on Thursday, AUD on Friday), and the DFX Trend Index every day after the NY close. He is also the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.
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