Yen Crosses Break Down -- NZDJPY Headed to 70

Published January 15th, 2008 - 08:17 GMT
Al Bawaba
Al Bawaba


CADJPY
CHFJPY
NZDJPY

Keep up with the action in the Yen crosses at our recently updated Yen Currency Room


Commentary – We wrote last week that “additional bearish potential remains.  However, expect a rally near term to complete a small second wave.  Resistance is above 111.11 at 111.86 and 112.81 (Fibonacci levels).  Long term objectives for the CADJPY are at 99.16 and 88.23.”  The rally only made it to 109.97 before the pair collapsed.  Look for the first objective just below 100 to be tested in the next few weeks.  We are showing the daily chart today in order to emphasize the big picture.

Strategy – Bearish, move risk to 109.97 (from 116.83), target TBD


Commentary – The CHFJPY completed its terminal thrust at 12/28 at 100.32.  The pair is headed lower, possible below the August low of 92.15 in the coming weeks.  A break below 97.33 would support the bearish bias.  A longer term reversal is underway now as the pair has dropped below the 200 day SMA.    

Strategy – Bearish, against 100.23, target TBD


Commentary – Please see the special report we published last Wednesday for more detailed NZDJPY analysis.  The decline from 97.74 to 74.25 is considered wave A within a large A-B-C correction from 97.74.  Wave B was a triangle and is probably complete at 86.18.  This means that wave C is underway now, which will probably be violent and fast -- and has the potential to drop below 70.    

Strategy – Bearish against 86.18, target below 70


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