Full Story - The Mexican peso continued to gain at the beginning of the week before finding consolidation and wide range bound scenarios in the middle of the week. However, now seemingly strengthening dollar proponents have entered the market taking the emerging market currency through the 11.00 handle, and corresponding topside resistance, for further potential upside. Dollar bulls are now eyeing technical resistance at the 11.05 figure.<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />
However, the weeks schedule, which is ringing Peso positive, leading to a dollars weekly demise. Sparking off the schedule will be the unemployment rate for the month of August. Previously printing a 3.95 percent, the consensus is pitting for an improved result, with unemployment in the region dropping to 3.8 percent. Positive, there is some concern over the figure as the decline may be a lack of labor force participants and not a rise in employment prospects. Nonetheless, should the figure show a dip in the rate, the result would be coupled with an expected rise in the bi-weekly consumer price index survey. For the bi-weekly survey, inflationary pressures are expected to increase to a 0.39 percent pace while previously printing a 0.30 percent rate. The tick higher may spark some speculation of further tightening measures as Mexican central bankers have just recently upped the overnight rate to 7 percent. However, with an expectedly widening trade balance and last weeks dip in industrial production, the decision and ultimate speculation may be cited as premature at this time. Finally, rounding out the week, the Global Economic Indicator is expected to show a moderation in the economy, as the survey is expected to rise at a 5.3 percent rate, subsequent to a 6.8 percent increase seen in the economy last month. The figure bodes well for the economy, which was expected to show a 2.7 percent pace at the beginning of the year.
Economic Releases for September 21 September 28
| Date | Event | GMT | EST | Consensus | Previous |
| 9/21 | Unemployment Rate (AUG) | 19:30 | 15:30 | 3.8% | 3.95% |
| 9/22 | Corto Banxico (SEP 22) | 14:00 | 10:00 | -P79M | -P79M |
| 9/22 | Overnight Rate (SEP22) | 14:00 | 10:00 | 7% | 7% |
| 9/22 | <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" />Mexico Bi-Weekly Consumer Price Index | 19:30 | 15:30 | 0.39% | 0.30% |
| 9/22 | Retail Sales (JUL) | 19:30 | 15:30 | 3.9% | 4.2% |
| 9/25 | Trade Balance (AUG P) | 19:30 | 15:30 | -344M | -319M |
| 9/26 | Global Economic Indicator (IGAE)(JUL) | 19:30 | 15:30 | 5.3% | 6.8% |
