The US dollar has pulled back across the majors, pushing EUR/USD above 1.3800 and GBP/USD through 1.5700, following the release of the minutes from the Federal Reserve's April 28-29 policy meeting.
The minutes show that the FOMC expects a deeper recession in 2009, a slower rebound in 2010, a greater rise in unemployment, and a possible need to expand their QE program. The full minutes from the meeting can be found on the Fed's website and the updated quarterly forecasts are listed below:
Federal Reserve economic projections:
Real GDP Central tendency
2009 Est. 2010 Est. 2011 Est.
April 29, 2009 -2.0% to -1.3% 2.0% to 3.0% 3.5% to 4.8%
Jan. 28, 2009 -1.3% to -0.5% 2.5% to 3.3% 3.8% to 5.0%
Real GDP Range
2009 Est. 2010 Est. 2011 Est.
April 29, 2009 -2.0% to -1.3% 2.0% to 3.0% 3.5% to 4.8%
Jan. 28, 2009 -2.5% to 0.2% 1.5% to 4.5% 2.3% to 5.5%
Unemployment Rate Central tendency
2009 Est. 2010 Est. 2011 Est.
April 29, 2009 9.2% to 9.6% 9.0% to 9.5% 7.7% to 8.5%
Jan. 28, 2009 8.5% to 8.8% 8.0% to 8.3% 6.7% to 7.5%
Unemployment Rate Range
2009 Est. 2010 Est. 2011 Est.
April 29, 2009 9.1% to 10.0% 8.0% to 9.6% 6.5% to 9.0%
Jan. 28, 2009 8.0% to 9.2% 7.0% to 9.2% 5.5% to 8.0%
PCE Price Index Central tendency
2009 Est. 2010 Est. 2011 Est.
April 29, 2009 0.6% to 0.9% 1.0% to 1.6% 1.0% to 1.9%
Jan. 28, 2009 0.3% to 1.0% 1.0% to 1.5% 0.9% to 1.7%
PCE Price Index Range
2009 Est. 2010 Est. 2011 Est.
April 29, 2009 -0.5% to 1.2% 0.7% to 2.0% 0.5% to 2.5%
Jan. 28, 2009 -0.5% to 1.5% 0.7% to 1.8% 0.2% to 2.1%
Core PCE Price Index Central tendency
2009 Est. 2010 Est. 2011 Est.
April 29, 2009 1.0% to 1.5% 0.7% to 1.3% 0.8% to 1.6%
Jan. 28, 2009 0.9% to 1.1% 0.8% to 1.5% 0.7% to 1.5%
Core PCE Price Index Range
2009 Est. 2010 Est. 2011 Est.
April 29, 2009 0.7% to 1.6% 0.5% to 2.0% 0.2% to 2.5%
Jan. 28, 2009 0.6% to 1.5% 0.4% to 1.7% 0.0% to 1.8%
