Euro Dips Below 1.2700
Japanese Yen Probes 117.00
British Pound Sub-1.8900
Swiss Franc Ready To Turn?
Canadian Dollar Gets Hammered
Australian Dollar Closes Below 20 day SMA
New Zealand Dollar Holds Own
EUR/USD EURUSD closed below the 20 day SMA yesterday for the first time since July 25th. Further, the inability of the pair to rally significantly off of the 1.2700 handle is certainly disconcerting to bulls. As such, there may be a dip below the 1.2693 low before any strength is seen in the pair. Possible support is just below at the 50% fibo of 1.2456-1.2908 at 1.2683. Strength above 1.2763 (yesterdays high) would re-instill confidence in the bullish side.
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USD/JPY Recent USDJPY dips have been met with strong support in the 116.20/30 area. As such, there may be some more dollar strength left before significant dollar weakness is seen. A close above the 200 day SMA yesterday is ammunition for bulls. A push above yesterdays high at 116.74 probes the 78.6% fibo of 117.88-113.95 at 117.03. On the other hand, prices trading under yesterdays low at 116.15 would favor a continued decline to at least the 8/11 low at 115.11. The nearly 2 month head and shoulders pattern is still in play as well. Only a push above 117.88 would negate that pattern.
GBP/USD The decline from 1.9144 has dipped below the 38.2% fibo of 1.8383-1.9144 at 1.8854. If yesterdays low at 1.8840 holds as support, then we could see a resumption of the uptrend with the 8/11 high at 1.8989 as initial resistance. A break below 1.8840 would keep lower lows in tact (in the short term) and expose the confluence of the 20 day SMA / 50% fibo of 1.8383-1.9144 at 1.8753/63.
USD/CHF USDCHF has broken above the confluence of the 161.8% fibo extension of 1.2191-1.2331 (from 1.2192) / 7/28 high at 1.2418/24 but is currently resisted by the 61.8% fibo of 1.2595-1.2191 at 1.2440. This along with bearish divergence (with RSI) on the hourly point to limited upside potential. Strength above 1.2440 probes the 78.6% fibo at 1.2508. A break below 1.2373 would favor a return to the 8/10 low at 1.2192.
USD/CAD We mentioned yesterday that A break above the 8/10, 8/11 highs at 1.1281 exposes the 8/4 high at 1.1345. This view is still favored. The bullish bias remains as long as the 8/11 low at 1.1170 holds keeping intact the higher lows from the 1.0927 low on 5/31. Price is currently challenging the 20 day SMA at 1.1300. A daily close above would bolster the bullish view.
AUD/USD After closing below the 20 day SMA for the first time since June 29th, AUDUSD has digested losses to trade back above the .7600 handle. As we have focused on in recent commentary, the bias is a bearish one as evidenced by the bearish divergence with oscillators on the daily at recent highs. MACD is also sloping down now and RSI is nearing 50. Immediate resistance is at the high from today at .7617 as well as the 38.2% fibo of .7713-.7583 at .7632. A break below .7583 exposes the 8/9 low at .7563.
NZD/USD Kiwi has held up better than the Aussie has. NZD/USD still trades close to the upper Bollinger band on the daily and is holding above both the 10 and 20 day SMAs. Kiwi also holds above a trendline from the 8/4 low at .6170. A continued bounce off of yesterdays low at .6273 targets a resisting trendline from the 5/3 high at .6443 near .6370. Resistance prior to that point is the 61.8% fibo of .6373-.6273 at .6334. Trading below .6273 could see an assault on the supporting trendline from the 6/28 low at .5927 near .6240.
