U.K. Economy Takes Step Towards Recession, Can The BoE Hike Rates?

Published July 1st, 2008 - 03:01 GMT
Al Bawaba
Al Bawaba





Fundamental Headlines

•    EURUSD  –  German retail sales unexpectedly rose in May 1.3% in May from a decline of 0.6% the month prior. German consumers remained resilient despite inflation eroding their purchasing power. Domestivc demand has been supported by a strong labor market which saw the unemployment rate decrease to 7.8 percent as the number of unemployed fell by 38K. The strong fundamental data for the region’s largest economy will give the ECB the leeway to hike rates at Thursday’s meeting. Discuss the topic and your trade ideas in the EUR/USD Forum.
•    USDJPY  – The Bank of Japan’s Tankan Index of Manufacturer’s Sentiment fell to a four-year low to 5 points, from 11 points in the previous quarter. Demand has weakened for Japanese goods, marked by manufacturer’s profit margins falling to 5.6 percent this fiscal year. Higher raw-material costs are still posing a downside risk for the economy. Discuss the topic and your trade ideas in the USD/JPY Forum.
•    GBPUSD – The U.K. PMI manufacturing gauge fell to 45.8 from 49.5 in May, the lowest since 2001. The sector fell further into contraction as higher credit costs and rising oil and raw material costs continue to weigh on producers, which saw output decline to 43.5 from 49.2. Expectations are that the sector will contract further next month, which may prevent the BoE from raising their benchmark interest rate as they try and rein in inflation 3.3%, above their 3% threshold. Discuss the topic and your trade ideas in the GBP/USD Forum.

•    UBS Sets Board Overhaul, Adopts New Governance Rules (link) – Wall Street Journal
•    Stocks End Quarter Just Above ‘Bear,’ But Challenges Remain for Rest of Year (link) – Wall Street Journal
•    FTSE Tumbles in Weak Start to Second Half  (link) – Financial Times
•    U.K. Annual House Prices Declined by Most Since 1992 (link) – Bloomberg
•    IPOs Fall to Five-Year Low as Economy Slows, Loan Losses Climb (link) – Bloomberg