Euro At Resistance
Japanese Yen Weakens off of Fibo Resistance
British Pound Short Term Triple top
Swiss Franc Breaks Below Trendline
Canadian Dollar Bulls Not Dead Yet
Australian Dollar Extends To Former Range High
New Zealand Dollar In Tight Range
EURUSD The EURUSD has rallied to test the 10/13 high at 1.2577 today. The important price level remains the shelf of support at 1.2456/81. The 200 day SMA at 1.2478 reinforces support at this level. A break below the 7/19 low at 1.2456 opens up the door for additional losses towards the 1/25 high at 1.2323. As mentioned yesterday it appears that 5 waves are down from 1.2765. Fibonacci resistance begins at the 38.2% of 1.2765-1.2483 at 1.2590.
USDJPY The USDJPY made an outside day yesterday and has held above yesterdays low at 118.31. 240 minute oscillators have turned up and favor a continuation of strength from 118.31. It is possible that the decline from 119.87 to 118.31 was the final leg of a 3 wave corrective move lower (a-b-c?.see labeling below). Only a break below the 5 month trendline drawn through 108.96 and 116.07 would turn the daily picture bearish. That line is at 117.33 today.
GBPUSD Rallies continue to stall at 1.8730 as Cable has made a short term triple top. 240 minute RSI crossed below 70 two days ago and 60 minute RSI exhibits bearish divergence with price at the 1.8738 high. A push above 1.8738 exposes the 78.6% of 1.8897-1.8515 at 1.816. The 10/11 low at 1.8515 remains support a break lower opens up the door for a test of the 7/25 low at 1.8383. The rally from 1.8522 may be the final leg of a 3 wave corrective move higher from 1.8515.
USDCHF The USDCHF is currently testing the 10/17 low at 1.2638. The wave structure is not as clear as the other majors but the highest probability right now is for one more high above 1.2769 in a 5th wave to complete a 5 wave bull sequence. Price must remain above the 9/29 high at 1.2567 for the 5 wave scenario to play out. A break above 1.2769 would expose the 4/21 high at 1.2822. Price has slipped below the short term trendline (below), which does limit confidence in the bullish wave structure.
USDCAD The USDCAD has retraced a portion of gains and is just below a supporting trendline that began on 9/28. The slip below the trendline suggests that a deeper correction lower may be underway. As such, Fibonacci support begins at 1.1288 (38.2% of 1.1085-1.1413). Strength above 1.1413 probes the 7/24 high at 1.1456.
AUDUSD The Aussie has exceeded the 10/17 high at .7553 and therefore nullified the doji from that day. The rally has extended to the 9/19 high at .7573 a break higher exposes the 78.6% fibo of .7721-.7413 at .7655. Daily oscillators are strong and favor the upside. It takes a dip back below .7488 to re-instill confidence in the downside.
NZDUSD Kiwi has traded within a 44 pip range the last two days and remains just below resistance from the 10/5 high at .6657. The pair has consolidated between .6539 and .6657 since 10/2. It takes a break of one of these barriers to establish some directional bias. The 4 month trendline drawn through .5927, .6375, and .6545 is currently at .6561. A two day close below there would imply a reversal lower.
