Lebanese trade has been less affected by the Syrian conflict than other regional countries, a World Bank study released Monday said.
The study findings were unveiled by World Bank trade economist Massimiliano Cali during a presentation in Beirut’s Crowne Plaza Hotel.
The study noted that the Syria conflict had no impact on Lebanese merchandise and services exports at the aggregate level.
While the growth in total Lebanese goods’ export has turned negative since 2012, the World Bank analysis suggests that the drop is unrelated to the Syrian war.
According to the World Bank findings, the decline in the total Lebanese export of goods has been mainly driven by a drop in the exports of pearls, precious stones and other metals, which are subject to fluctuations in international demand.
On the other hand, the analysis suggests that the Syrian war has generated opportunities for Lebanese exporters to replace the loss in Syrian production.
On average, exports to Syria increased by $125,000 per firm relative to the exports of the same firm to other destinations, and relative to the exports of other exporters once netting out the drop in Syrian exports for the original exporters in 2010, the report noted.
This replacement effect appeared to be large enough to compensate for the negative impact of the war on the precrisis exporters to Syria, the study found. For the average exporter, the change in exports to Syria in the period 2010-12 has been slightly positive overall.
Customs data reveals that the Syrian war provided a boost to Lebanese beverages and tobacco exports to Syria. For instance, exports of wheat to Syria increased 14-fold between 2011 and 2013.
However, the data suggest that transit trade has been severely disrupted by the Syrian war.
The figures show a redirection of both exports and imports away from Masnaa and Abboudieh border crossing in the 2012-2013 period toward Port of Beirut, whose share of total export value has jumped to 44 percent in 2013 from 28 percent in 2012.
The study said that firms using Syria as a transit route witnessed on average a drop of $68,000 in their exports by 2012 relative to the value of their exports via the same route in 2010.
More than 20 percent of total Lebanese exports and about 6 percent of total imports mainly to and from the Arab markets go through Syria.
The impact of the Syrian war on Lebanese trade in services, which dominate Lebanese exports, was difficult to assess, the World Bank said.
