1. CADJPY
2. CHFJPY
3. NZDJPY
CADJPY We mentioned last week that daily RSI is oversold, suggesting that a bottom could be forming in the next several weeks. The CADJPY rallied strongly off of 97.50 last week to the 50% retracement of the 104.85-97.50 decline (101.17). The rally from 97.50 is either a correction of the weakness that preceded it or a change in trend. If the pair rallies above 101.15 before declining below 99.49, then we will have 5 waves up from the 97.50 low, which would establish a longer term bullish bias (with the opportunity to buythe ensuing correction). If 99.49 is broken prior to a new high being established, then probability favors additional losses to below 97.50.
Key Levels & Technical Indicators
CHFJPY The rally off of 94.27 is uninspiring and looks corrective. While there could still be another leg up to test the 61.8% of 98.39-94.26 at 96.81, we believe that the best interpretation classifies the decline from 98.39 as a 4th wave correction that could test the confluence of the 50% Fibonacci level / channel support at 93.03 before a 5th wave ends in a new high above 98.39. 93.03 intersects channel support at the end of April.
Key Levels & Technical Indicators
NZDJPY NZDJPY looks exactly the same as CADJPY. The points to watch are 80.06 and 82.31. A rally above 82.31 before a decline below 80.06 would mean that there are 5 waves up from 77.42. A decline below 80.06 before a rally above 82.31 would mean that there are just 3 waves higher (which would be corrective). The former scenario would be bullish (with the opportunity to buy a correction) and the latter scenario would suggest that price is headed back below 77.42.
Key Levels & Technical Indicators
Table
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CCI(20) 20 day Commodity Channel Index
> 0 bullish
0 > bearish
> 100 extremely bullish
-100 > - extremely bearish
RSI(14) 14 day Relative Strength Index
> 50 bullish
50 > bearish
> 70 overbought
30 > - oversold
MACD ? - MACD slope (MACD MACD[1])
> 0 bullish
0 > - bearish
Mom(21) 21 day Momentum
> 0 bullish
0 > - bearish
ATR(14) 14 day <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" />AverageTrueRange (volatility)
Medium 75th percentile* > ATR(14) > 25th percentile*
High - > 75th percentile*
Low 25th percentile* >
*measured against past 3 months
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