Three Reasons Bitcoin Isn't Moving and When That Changes

Bitcoin is trading just above $66,000. The US and Iran have reached a memorandum of understanding to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, set to be signed this Friday. Oil is sliding, equities are up, and bitcoin is up around 2%.

According to Nagham Hassan, Market Analyst at eToro, bitcoin finds itself suspended between three forces keeping a lid on price: a geopolitical backdrop where ceasefires keep being broken, a four-year cycle still pointing to a bear market phase, and a capital reallocation that is pulling institutional and retail attention toward AI and the biggest IPO wave in a generation. Let us dissect these one by one.

Starting with geopolitics. Despite a deal being signed this Friday, the market's reaction has been muted. Markets have rallied on separate ceasefire announcements since February and handed every gain back each time. The market is pricing an interim memorandum, not a settlement. The Strait remains blocked. Nuclear talks are deferred. Until ships are actually passing through Hormuz and ink is dry on a real agreement, traders will not price in the peace.

On the four-year cycle: bitcoin is still in a bear market phase. It peaked at $126,000 in October 2025, driven by institutional buying rather than retail. History suggests the bottom arrives 12 to 13 months after the peak, so we are eight months in. The debate right now is whether $59,000 was this cycle's floor or simply the first stop on the way down. Previous cycles suggest there may be more pain ahead. Until bitcoin breaks and reclaims its 200-day moving average (currently in the $82,000–$83,000 range) with conviction, this is only a bounce, not a reversal.

Capital reallocation is adding a third layer of pressure. SpaceX went public on June 12 at around $1.77 trillion valuation, surging to over $2 trillion on its first day of trading. OpenAI and Anthropic are set to follow. Capital right now is chasing AI. To put it in perspective: an analysis by ⁠Jefferies Financial Group reveals that excluding the core AI hardware and data center infrastructure ecosystem leaves the S&P 500 up just 2% this year, proving that artificial intelligence spending has driven over 80% of total market gains. Meanwhile, bitcoin ETFs recorded $3.4 billion in outflows in a single week in June, the largest since their 2024 launch. The rotation into AI is draining liquidity out of bitcoin.

The outlook for the second half of 2026 is not one of imminent recovery. History suggests a real bottom is still ahead. The Fed hasn't turned. The Iran deal needs to survive the signing on June 19 and the 60 days that follow before the macro tailwind becomes real. AI and the IPO wave will continue absorbing capital flows for at least the next two quarters. What bitcoin is doing right now is consolidating, digesting, and waiting for the conditions that actually justify a breakout.