China equities navigate oil shock as trade data signals shifting dynamics

China’s equity markets are adjusting to the impact of rising oil prices, as the latest March trade data offers an early indication of how the shock is feeding through the economy, according to eToro’s latest market commentary.

China’s export growth slowed to 2.5% in March, while imports surged nearly 28% – the fastest pace since 2021 – driven by a sharp increase in purchases of oil and other commodities. This pattern suggests a degree of frontloading in energy and commodity imports amid ongoing supply uncertainty, a trend observed during previous periods of market disruption.

Historically, such shocks tend to raise input costs and weigh on corporate margins in the near term. However, the impact is often reflected more significantly in market valuations rather than immediate earnings deterioration, as companies and investors adjust expectations.

Lale Akoner, Global Market Analyst at eToro, commented: “China equities are navigating the oil shock in real time, with trade data highlighting how quickly the effects are being priced in. The surge in imports, particularly in energy and commodities, points to frontloading behaviour as businesses respond to supply uncertainty.”

She added: “From an investment perspective, energy-sensitive sectors such as oil, shipping, and logistics are likely to benefit from stronger pricing power in this environment. At the same time, structural themes like AI and energy security remain supported by policy tailwinds and global demand, as reflected in continued strength in high-tech exports.”

Despite near-term volatility, broader market fundamentals remain underpinned by policy support, with the Chinese state continuing to play a stabilising role. The current environment is also driving sector rotation, particularly towards industries that can better absorb or pass on rising input costs.

Akoner concluded: “With oil acting as a catalyst for sector rotation, the focus for investors remains clear: stay selective, lean into defensive positioning, and treat volatility as an opportunity rather than a signal of deterioration.”