Ceasefire Brings Relief, But Energy, Shipping and Market Risks Set to Linger

The war may be paused, but we expect several effects to linger across four fronts: energy pricing, shipping/logistics, inventories, and market risk premia. Even after a ceasefire, Hormuz does not normalize overnight.  Market prices adjust much faster than physical flows, and shipping firms may need time just to regain confidence, with port activity taking about two months to normalize. Inventory rebuilding then takes longer still: energy analysts estimate roughly four months to restore OECD stocks to a more comfortable level.

So today’s market euphoria is understandable, but it is more likely a relief rally than a durable all-clear. Risk assets can stay supported near term if tanker traffic improves and rhetoric cools, but the upside is limited without a broader agreement.

On fuel prices, the answer is not immediate. If the ceasefire holds, wholesale crude can fall quickly, but pump prices and broader fuel costs usually lag because physical supply chains, insurance costs, routing patterns, and inventory replenishment all take time. The physical market is still short of pre-war flows, and normalization in actual supply conditions will take months, not days.

On the supply side, companies should diversify routes, secure alternative sources, rebuild inventories, and stay flexible on shipping and insurance, as disruptions and higher costs may persist. On the demand side, buyers should pace purchases, focus on essential use, and stay cautious, because with low inventories, even small disruptions can quickly push prices higher.
Overall, we think that the pause can ease panic, but not erase the structural risk premium. Markets can stay calmer, but energy, shipping, and headline sensitivity are likely to remain elevated for months.