The dollar decline is not over. In particular, the GBPUSD looks ready to break higher from a triangle. The break should exceed 2.00 and reach at least the mid 2.01s.
Wave 5 within the 5 wave rally from 1.4438 may be underway now. Wave 5 would equal wave 1 at 1.5391, not far from the mentioned objectives of 1.5429 and 1.5447. This is our favored count as long as price is above 1.5158. A drop below there means that wave 4 is still underway and is likely to test 1.5072 before wave 5 up begins.
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A drop below 102.62 would complete 5 waves down from 108.22. If this happens, then it is possible that we could get an opportunity to sell into a corrective rally that challenges former congestion in the 103.80/104.40 zone.
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Cable still has a few hundred pips of upside potential. A triangle has formed since the 1.9970 high and is viewed as wave 4 within the 5 wave advance from 1.9361 (which itself is a C wave). As such, a terminal thrust above 1.9970 probably occurs this week. Resistance begins at 2.0033. Risk on longs can be moved to 1.9811. Within wave C (from 1.9361); wave i is 346 pips and wave iii is 355 pips. With waves i and iii roughly equal, it is likely that wave v will be extended. The former 4th wave at 2.0101 is a possible target but with wave v expected to be extended, the GBPUSD could charge the 50% or 61.8% at 2.0248 or 2.0463.
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STRATEGY: Bullish, against 1.9811, target 2.0119
A drop below 1.0307 would complete 5 waves down from 1.1033. This completes wave 3 within the 5 wave bear cycle from 1.1105. A shallow 4th wave correction is then expected. Resistance should be strong near 1.0420.
The rally from .9710 could be counted as an impulse. As such, a bullish bias is warranted against .9710. Potential support begins at .9826. The next leg of the rally will be either wave 3 or C within the cycle from .9055. The rally will probably be strong. The goal for this week is to position for a big move higher.
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We view the decline from .9496 as wave 4 within the 5 wave advance from .8512. Price is expected to exceed .9496 in the next few weeks and possibly test parity before a major reversal occurs. Within the 5 wave rally from .8512, wave 1 is 588 pips, and wave 3 is 622 pips. Wave 5 could be extended or could be close to the lengths of wave 1 and 3. This places the end of the AUDUSD rally near at least .9800-.9900.
STRATEGY: Bullish, against .9263, target near .9800
The drop from .8214 is in just 3 waves and is therefore corrective. The rally from .7922 to .8081 is an impulse, which makes us confident in the bullish count. Similar to the AUDUSD, the NZDUSD is expected to make one more high in a 5th wave (above) .8214) before a major reversal occurs.
STRATEGY: Bullish, against .7922, target TBD
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